Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

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Insider Advantage
Date: 5/5
North Carolina
Added: 5/6/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]

Quote:

InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �This race is going to be closer than most experts expected. If the African-American vote is 35% or higher, then I expect Sen. Obama to win, most likely by a 52%-to-48% margin. If white voters have turned out at a higher than expected level, thus driving the black percentage overall closer to the 31-32% level, then the race could be up for grabs. White voters in the poll crossed the margin number for Clinton of 60%-plus for the first time. But the �Unaffiliated Voters� and voters in the age group of 45-to-64 (who previously leaned Clinton) are the two demographic groups keeping Obama ahead of the game. This race really is about turnout and the higher it is, the more likely we will see a closer than expected finish.�

Barack Obama	47%
Hillary Clinton	43%
Unsure	10%
Source

Zogby Poll
Date: 5/4-5
North Carolina
Added: 5/6/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

In North Carolina, Obama wins 79% support among African Americans, compared with 11% for Clinton, the junior senator from New York. But while Clinton wins among whites, 52% to 37%, Obama�s advantage among African Americans more than counteracts her advantage among those white voters. The African American vote in the North Carolina primary is expected to be about 32%.
Early voting in North Carolina began April 17th, and Obama has done well among the 30 percent in the survey who said they had already cast ballots. Among those voters, he leads Clinton by a 57% to 34% margin. Many of those ballots may have been cast before last week�s controversy over Obama�s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Geographically, Obama made inroads into what had been Clinton territory in western and eastern North Carolina, while Clinton closed to within three points in Charlotte. In the southeast corner of the state, Clinton held a 12 point lead.
Obama dominated among men, leading 56% to 34%, and among women, where he won 47% support to Clinton�s 40%�largely on the strength of Obama�s support among African American women. Obama also led among younger voters in the state, while Clinton enjoyed leads among older voters. Among a key age demographic group�those age 35 to 54�Obama leads by 58% to 29% margin. This group is important because it tends to simultaneously bear many of the burdens facing American citizens, including economic, health care, and educational issues involved with raising children, planning for retirement, and dealing with problems posed by aging parents.

Barack Obama	51%
Hillary Clinton	37%
Unsure	8%
Other	4%
Source

American Research Group
Date: 5/2-4
North Carolina
Added: 5/6/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 54% to 39% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Obama leads 47% to 44%. Clinton leads 62% to 27% among white voters (60% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 88% to 9% among African American voters (36% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 55% to 37% among voters age 18 to 49 (51% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 48% to 45% among voters age 50 and older. 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 26% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Barack Obama	50%
Hillary Clinton	42%
Unsure	4%
Other	4%
Source

Survey USA
Date: 5/2-4
North Carolina
Added: 5/6/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

In Charlotte and Western NC, there is the slightest momentum for Clinton. In the Research Triangle, in Southern NC and in Coastal NC, there is slight offsetting momentum to Obama. The net is a wash. If Obama wins, it will be entirely from the 19% of voters who describe themselves as liberal.
Clinton leads by 9 among conservatives and leads by 8 among moderates.
If Obama wins the popular vote, it will be because of his 16-point advantage among liberals. Clinton has increasing momentum among voters age 50 to 64, where she has gone from 30% in January to 51% today, her highest showing.
Among those age 65+, Clinton leads by 20 points; the more seniors who vote, the better Clinton does. But there is offsetting momentum among younger voters, some of whom may be first-time voters, and not all of whom may show-up at the precinct. 1 in 4 of SurveyUSA's likely voters say they have already voted. Among those who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 16 points. Among those who say they will vote on Primary Day, Obama and Clinton are effectively tied.

Barack Obama	50%
Hillary Clinton	45%
Unsure	5%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 5/3-4
North Carolina
Added: 5/5/08
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]

Quote:

He has a 53-43 lead, the smallest he has shown in a PPP poll over the last six weeks but also larger than many other opinion polls that have been released in the last seven days. Obama will win based largely on the black vote, as the poll shows an electorate polarized along racial lines. Obama leads 84-11 with black voters but trails Hillary Clinton 60-34 with white voters.
�It appears Barack Obama will weather the storm in North Carolina,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Hillary Clinton has certainly been able to make in roads as she has contested the state hard, but North Carolina�s demographics make this almost an impossible state to win for her.�

Barack Obama	53%
Hillary Clinton	43%
Unsure	4%
Source

Insider Advantage
Date: 5/4
North Carolina
Added: 5/5/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]

Quote:

InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday�s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp.� Towery adds � What is ironic is that Clinton has an outside chance to pull off a near-tie or victory in North Carolina, but our preliminary overnight numbers in Indiana show her losing steam, but holding a lead, in that state. We will release Indiana numbers by midday Monday.�
Whites: Clinton 59%, Obama 33%. Blacks: Obama 79%, Clinton 18%. Men: Obama 50%, Clinton 44%. Women: Obama 47%, Clinton 45%.

Barack Obama	48%
Hillary Clinton	45%
Unsure	7%
Source

Zogby Poll
Date: 5/3-4
North Carolina
Added: 5/5/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

Obama enjoys solid leads in the cities of Greensboro, Charlotte, and the �research triangle� area of Raleigh-Durham, which contain large numbers of younger voters. He has done well across the country among voters in urban settings, while Clinton has done well among older and rural Democratic voters. Obama leads among the key demographic of voters age 35-54 by a 58% to 31% margin � which is dramatically different than how that age of voter acted in Pennsylvania two weeks ago. There, Clinton won among those voters. It is also important to note that Obama has made real inroads among voters age 55-69, where Clinton wins 44% and Obama wins 43% - a statistical tie.
Clinton leads among white voters in North Carolina, 55% to 34%, while Obama leads among African American voters, 77% to 10%.

Barack Obama	48%
Hillary Clinton	40%
Unsure	8%
Other	5%
Source

Zogby Poll
Date: 5/2-3
North Carolina
Added: 5/4/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Obama leads by 16 points among voters age 35-54, the largest age grouping in the survey. The candidates are tied among those aged 55 to 69, another large grouping.
Clinton leads in the more rural western area of North Carolina, and in the east. Obama holds a 60% to 31% lead among voters in the so-called research triangle including Raleigh-Durham.
Clinton leads among whites, 56% to 33%, while Obama leads among African Americans, 78% to 6%. African American voters in North Carolina comprise about one-third of the electorate.
Among men, Obama retained a slim 47% to 42% lead over Clinton, and he continues to lead among women as well - winning 48% support to Clinton's 37% backing, largely on the strength of support for Obama among African American women.

Barack Obama	48%
Hillary Clinton	39%
Unsure	8%
Other	5%
Source

Zogby Poll
Date: 5/1-2
North Carolina
Added: 5/3/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

Clinton expanded her lead among white voters in North Carolina, and narrowed the gap among African American voters, where Obama leads by a 73% to 10% margin. Among men, Obama leads 50% to 35% - an improvement for Clinton - and he continues to lead among women voters as well - winning 43% support to Clinton's 39% backing, largely on the strength of support for Obama from African American women.

Barack Obama	46%
Hillary Clinton	37%
Unsure	9%
Other	8%
Source

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 5/1
North Carolina
Added: 5/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries�Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White voters while Obama leads 74% to 10% among African-Americans. Clinton leads among senior citizens, the candidates split those in the 50-64 age range, and Obama leads among younger voters.
Eighty percent (80%) have followed news stories about Barack Obama�s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Forty-three percent (43%) believe Obama denounced Wright because he was outraged while 40% believe political convenience was the motivation. Seventy percent (70%) of Clinton supporters say Obama was politically motivated. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Obama supporters say their candidate was outraged by Wright.
Forty percent (40%) say it�s at least somewhat likely that Obama shares some of Wright�s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 62% of Clinton voters.
Overall, 15% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in North Carolina agree with Wright�s comments about the U.S. That figure includes 22% of Obama voters. Wright himself is viewed favorably by 15% of Likely North Carolina Primary Voters.

Barack Obama	49%
Hillary Clinton	40%
Unsure	11%
Source

Insider Advantage
Date: 5/1
North Carolina
Added: 5/2/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Whites: Clinton 53%, Obama 39%. Blacks: Obama 80%, Clinton 16%. Men: Obama 52%, Clinton 43%. Women: Obama 46%, Clinton 45%.

Barack Obama	49%
Hillary Clinton	44%
Unsure	7%
Source

Zogby Poll
Date: 4/30-5/1
North Carolina
Added: 5/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Quote:

Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina�47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well�winning 44% support to Clinton's 37% backing.
Asked if the statements of controversial Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright made voters more or less likely to support Obama, 15% of North Carolina voters said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said the comments made them more likely to support Obama.