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Democrat Polls

Quinnipiac University
Date: 2/27-3/2
Ohio
Added: 3/3/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]

Quote:

The gender gap is a key factor in this latest survey, as women support Sen. Clinton 55 - 39 percent, while men back Sen. Obama by a mirror image 55 - 39 percent margin. Clinton's strength among lower income voters, 50 - 44 percent, and among older voters, 55 - 39 percent, also gives her an edge over Obama.

The Illinois Senator leads 58 - 37 percent among voters under 45. He also gets 90 percent of the black vote, while Clinton leads 60 - 34 percent among whites.

"The profiles of the Clinton voter and the Obama voter in Ohio are almost mirror images," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Men are for him; women for her. Those higher on the socio-economic scale are for him; those lower for her. Older people are for her; younger voters for him.

"The big unknown is turnout. It's not just whether it is higher than normal, which everyone expects it to be. The key question is whether turnout is disproportionately higher among some demographic groups than others."

Columbus Dispatch Poll Conducted by mail (Dispatch.com)
Date: 2/21-29
Ohio
Added: 3/2/08
Est. MoE = 2.0% [?]

Quote:

But there's one undeniable fact among Democrats: They overwhelmingly think that Obama will win the November election, regardless of whom they support in the primary. Even nearly a third of Clinton supporters in the poll expect Obama to be the next president.

One of them is Diana Brenner, a 54-year-old psychologist from Columbus, who said she likes Clinton's experience and the way she can specifically explain her positions on health care and the economy.

But Brenner still thinks Obama is going to win.

"This country is so tired, especially after the last seven years, of such a negative environment," she said. "He seems so new and fresh that I think people are being swayed in his direction because of that."

Ohio is generally considered a must-win "firewall" for Clinton, although her supporters are now saying she has to win only two of the remaining three major states. Texas also votes Tuesday, while Pennsylvania's primary isn't until April 22.

But because of complicated rules for selecting Democratic delegates, modest Clinton victories provide little help in narrowing Obama's overall lead.

Plain Dealer poll conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Research
Date: 2/27-29
Ohio
Added: 3/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

Men: Obama 51%, Clinton 38%. Women: Clinton 53%, Obama 38%. Whites: Clinton 58%, Obama 32%. Blacks: Obama 83%, Clinton 8%.

Reuters/C SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby tracking poll
Date: 2/28-3/1
Ohio
Added: 3/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

The Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 52% to 41% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by an identical 52% to 41% edge.

Obama leads among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton leads among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.

Reuters/C SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby tracking poll
Date: 2/27-29
Ohio
Added: 3/1/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

The two Democrats have drawn dead-even to the tenth of a percent (44.8% each), as Clinton continued to show strength in northern Ohio outside Cleveland, but trailed Obama badly in northeast Ohio and in burgeoning central Ohio, where the capital city of Columbus is home to many state government workers. Clinton leads in the more sparsely-populated, less affluent southern Ohio region. She also retains a small lead among Catholics, an important voting bloc in this Rust Belt state.

Fox News / Opinion Dynamics Poll
Date: 2/26-28
Ohio
Added: 2/29/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

I�m going to read you a list of qualities many people think are important in presidential candidates. Thinking specifically about your vote in the primary, which ONE quality mattered most in deciding who you are supporting over the other candidate in the Democratic primary... (ROTATE) (IF DON�T KNOW: If you had to choose one, which would you say?) 1. Can bring about change 36% 2. Has the right experience 28 3. Understands average Americans 23 4. Has the best chance to win against the Republican 8 5. (Don�t know/Refused) 6

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 2/28
Ohio
Added: 2/29/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

Recognizing her slide in the polls and the must-win status of next week�s primaries in both Ohio and Texas, Clinton has released a tough new ad raising questions about Obama�s ability to handle national security issues. Obama�s team responded by re-releasing an ad from earlier in the campaign. Looking ahead to the general election, McCain already has a huge advantage over Obama on the national security issue. In fact, just 51% of Democrats trust Obama more than McCain on that topic.

Just 16% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe the North American Free Trade Agreement�NAFTA�is good for America. Fifty-five percent (55%) say the trade agreement negotiated by the Clinton Administration is bad for the nation. Those numbers are unchanged over the past week.

Ohio voters still tend to see Obama as opposed to NAFTA while Clinton�s position is less clear. The current survey finds that 58% believe Obama opposes NAFTA, up from 53% before the Tuesday night debate. Seventeen percent (17%) believe the Illinois Senator favors that trade agreement.

For Clinton, 34% believe she favors NAFTA, little changed since the debate. However, 38% now believe she opposes that agreement, up from 31% in the previous survey.

Clinton leads by eight among women and trails by six among men.

Reuters/C Span/Houston Chronicle/Zogby Poll
Date: 2/26-28
Ohio
Added: 2/29/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

Clinton holds a slim lead that has diminished steadily in past weeks. Her strength stems from the same demographic groups that carried her to victories earlier in the campaign, but the trend appears to favor Obama, as late deciders are more likely to support him over her, the survey shows, and 9% of Ohio Democrats say they have yet to make up their minds. Another five percent voiced favor for another candidate not now in the race. Some of those may have already voted, but some may have yet to do so.

�Ohio is very tight for the Democrats and is a throwback to the earlier Clinton-Obama races. Clinton leads among Democrats, women, voters over 50, and everywhere outside the three big cities. She also leads among Catholics, voters in union households, and moderates. Obama leads among voters under 50, especially those under 30, and among liberals.

�But the most telling numbers are those among early deciders vs. late deciders. Among those who made up their minds �more than a month ago�, Clinton leads 63% to 37%. Obama leads but margins as big among those who made up their minds less than a month ago, a week ago, and within the past few days. In the same vein, Clinton leads by 6 among those who have already voted.�

American Research Group
Date: 2/27-28
Ohio
Added: 2/29/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Obama leads among men 57% to 36% (45% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 62% to 35%. Clinton leads among white voters 56% to 37% (82% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads among African American voters 80% to 17% (16% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among voters age 18 to 49 (58% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads 50% to 45%. Among voters age 50 years and older, Clinton leads 57% to 36%. Among early voters, Clinton leads 59% to 40% (21% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among in-person voters, Clinton leads 48% to 45%.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 2/25
Ohio
Added: 2/26/08
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]

Quote:

Just 16% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe the North American Free Trade Agreement�NAFTA�is good for America. Fifty-five percent (55%) say the trade agreement negotiated by the Clinton Administration is bad for the nation.

By a 53% to 14% margin, voters believe that Obama opposes NAFTA while there are mixed perceptions on where Clinton stands. Thirty-five percent (35%) believe she favors NAFTA, 31% believe she opposes it and 34% are not sure. This issue is critical in a state that has lost thousands of manufacturing jobs. Politically, these lower-income voters have generally supportive of Clinton throughout the primary season.

Clinton still leads among voters who earn less than $60,000 a year. Obama leads among higher income voters.

Clinton leads by eleven points among women but trails by four among men. A recent commentary by Susan Estrich wondered if the �G-word��gender�is the reason for Clinton�s struggles.

In Ohio, Clinton is viewed favorably by 77%, down four points since last week. Obama has earned favorable reviews from 72%, up a couple of points over the past week.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That�s down five points from 82% a week ago.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) say the same about Obama. That�s up four points over the past week.

Survey USA
Date: 2/24-25
Ohio
Added: 2/26/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]

Quote:

Step-By-Step, Inch-By-Inch, Obama Tip-Toes Up To Clinton's Back Door in Ohio: In a Democratic Primary in Ohio today, 02/26/08, the day the candidates debate in Cleveland, and 7 days before the votes are counted, Hillary Clinton is 6 points in front of Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, and WHIO-TV Dayton. Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 17. One week ago, Clinton led by 9. Today: 6. Clinton holds her ground in greater Cleveland, greater Columbus, and greater Cincinnati. Clinton is steady among seniors, among voters focused on Health Care, among Moderates, among Pro-Choicers, and among women. Though Clinton trails among men, Obama has stopped making further inroads there. However: Among registered Democrats, Clinton had led by 21, then led by 17, now leads by 8. Among voters under age 50, Clinton had led by 9, then trailed by 2, now trails by 7. Among Pro-Life voters, Clinton had led by 11, then led by 8, now trails by 5. Among voters focused on the Economy, Clinton had led by 25, then by 21, now by 14. In greater Toledo, Clinton had led by 29, now leads by 1. Early voting favors Clinton:Among the 12% of respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Clinton leads by 22 points. For Obama to win Ohio, he must receive at least 52% of the remaining likely voters. If Clinton gets more than 48% of the remaining Democratic Primary votes, Clinton wins the state. Because the convention delegates are allocated proportionally, a win for either candidate is not as profound as the symbolism that goes with it.

Public Policy Polling
Date: 2/23-24
Ohio
Added: 2/25/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Obama�s surge appears to be at least partially attributable to the virtual certainly that John McCain will be nominated on the Republican side. That means more independents and Republicans in the state are planning to vote in the Democratic primary. While Obama trails Clinton 56-40 among self identified Democrats, he leads 80-13 with Republicans and 64-33 with independents.

�Hillary Clinton is in big trouble,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �As recently as a week ago many polls in the state were showing her with around a 20 point lead. The race is trending heavily toward Obama and time is on his side with another eight day before the voting.�

The standard racial and gender disparities in support between Clinton and Obama apply in Ohio. She leads 55-42 with women, while he leads 51-45 with men. She has a 56-38 advantage with white voters, while he leads 76-24 with African American voters.

Quinnipiac University
Date: 2/18-23
Ohio
Added: 2/25/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

"Sen. Clinton's lead remains substantial, but the trend line should be worrisome for her in a state that even her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has said she must win," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "A week is an awful long time in politics to be playing defense, but one thing going in her favor is that she is viewed more favorably than is he by Ohio likely Democratic primary voters.

University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll
Date: 2/21-24
Ohio
Added: 2/25/08
Est. MoE = 4.4% [?]

Quote:

Three issues dominate Democratic primary voter decisions about the 2008 presidential race: the economy/jobs (41%), health care/health insurance (25%) and the war in Iraq/Iraq policy (16%).

American Research Group
Date: 2/23-24
Ohio
Added: 2/25/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Obama leads among men 49% to 37% (46% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 59% to 31%. Clinton leads among white voters 56% to 31% (82% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads among African American voters 79% to 15% (16% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among voters age 18 to 49 (61% of likely Democratic primary voters), it is Clinton 43% and Obama 42%. Among voters age 50 years and older, Clinton leads 58% to 34%.

Decision Analyst
Date: 2/20-21
Ohio
Added: 2/23/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

The issues of greatest importance to those who plan to vote in the Democratic Primary are (in order of importance): providing good healthcare for everyone (chosen by 36%); bringing the troops home from Iraq (31%); making the economy stronger and better (31%); reducing unemployment, creating more job opportunities (23%); reducing gasoline prices and the cost of energy (19%); leadership (ability to manage government, work with world leaders, get things done) (18%).

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 2/21
Ohio
Added: 2/22/08
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]

Quote:

The race, like many others in Election 2008, remains very fluid. In addition to the 12% who are undecided, another 17% of voters say they might change their mind before voting.

The shifting opinions of male voters is about the only significant difference between this poll and the previous poll. A recent commentary by Susan Estrich wondered if the �G-word��gender�is the reason for Clinton�s struggles.

In Ohio, Clinton is viewed favorably by 81%, Obama by 70%. Those figures have changed little over the past week.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Seventy-five percent (75%) say the same about Obama. Those figures are similar to the earlier survey as well.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Ohio voters name the economy as the top voting issue. Eighteen percent (18%) say it�s the War in Iraq while 14% name Health Care issues as the top priority.

Ohio is one of two states that the Clinton campaign and many outside experts have deemed essential for the former First Lady to win is she is to have a chance of winning the Democratic Presidential nomination. Texas, which also votes on March 4, is the other. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Texas shows Clinton�s lead is down to three points.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll
Date: 2/16-20
Ohio
Added: 2/22/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

A quarter of likely voters in Ohio are from union households; they back Clinton by 53-37 percent, vs. a narrower 49-45 percent division among those from non-union households. Clinton lost union households voters to Obama in Wisconsin, though across all primaries to date she�s won them by 50-43 percent. There are very few union voters in Texas.

The Ohio survey included an oversample of 27 African-Americans for a total of 104 blacks (weighted back to their share of the total population).

Survey USA
Date: 2/17-18
Ohio
Added: 2/20/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

Two Weeks to Must-Win Ohio, Clinton 9 Points Atop Obama: In a Democratic Primary for President of the United States in Ohio today, 2/16/08, two weeks till the votes are counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama, 52% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCMH-TV Columbus, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHIO-TV Dayton, and WKYC-TV Cleveland. Clinton leads by 35 points among seniors, by 30 points in greater Columbus, by 28 points among women, by 21 points among whites, by 21 points among voters focused on the Economy, and by 17 points among registered Democrats. Obama leads by by 48 points among blacks, by 20 points among the youngest voters, and by 16 points among men. The two are tied in greater Cleveland, tied among Moderates, tied among voters focused on Health Care. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 5. Among voters older than John McCain, Clinton leads by 45. Among voters in between, Clinton leads by 15.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 2/13
Ohio
Added: 2/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

Clinton leads by seven points among men and eighteen points among women. She holds a solid lead among voters over 50.

In Ohio, Clinton is viewed favorably by 81%, Obama by 71%.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Obama.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Ohio voters name the economy as the top voting issue. Eighteen percent (18%) say it�s the War in Iraq while 13% name Health Care issues as the top priority.

Ohio is one of two states that the Clinton campaign and many outside experts have deemed essential for the former First Lady to win is she is to have a chance of winning the Democratic Presidential nomination. Texas, which also votes on March 4, is the other. To improve her chances in these states, Clinton is hoping for a strong showing in Wisconsin where new polling data shows the race to be quite competitive.

Quinnipiac University
Date: 2/6-12
Ohio
Added: 2/14/08
Est. MoE = 2.3% [?]

Quote:

"Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Sen. Clinton as she will find. It is blue-collar America, with a smaller percentage of both Democrats with college educations and African- Americans than in many other states where Sen. Obama has carried the day," said Brown. "If Clinton can't win the primary there, it is very difficult to see how she stops Obama."

Survey USA
Date: 2/10-11
Ohio
Added: 2/13/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

Clinton Looks Ahead to Next Firewall State, Ohio, Where Women and Whites Give Her Hope: In a Democratic Primary in Ohio today, 02/12/08, the day of the Virginia and Delaware primaries and 3 weeks till Ohio votes, Hillary Clinton tops Barack Obama 56% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WCMH-TV Columbus, and WEWS-TV Cleveland. Clinton's lead comes entirely from women, where she leads by 29 points. She and Obama are tied among men. Whites vote 3:2 Clinton. Blacks vote 3:1 Obama. Obama runs strongest in Western Ohio, where he holds Clinton to 50% and trails her by 5 points. In Eastern Ohio Clinton leads by 18; in Central Ohio she leads by 30.

Republican Polls

Columbus Dispatch Poll Conducted by mail
Date: 2/21-29
Ohio
Est. MoE = 2.1% [?]

Quote:

Even though McCain appears on the verge of mathematically clinching the nomination, Ohio GOP voters are still unhappy with their choices. More than half proclaimed themselves "not very" or "not at all" satisfied with their party's presidential candidates.

Reuters/C SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby tracking poll
Date: 2/28-3/1
Ohio
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

McCain appears to be winning over more of the conservative bloc, as he leads Huckabee 63% to 27% among mainline conservatives. Huckabee leads among Ohio�s very conservative, 52% to 38%. McCain leads 70% to 18% among Ohio moderates.

Reuters/C SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby tracking poll
Date: 2/27-29
Ohio
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Reuters/C Span/Houston Chronicle/Zogby Poll
Date: 2/26-28
Ohio
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

The Ohio GOP race is a blow-out, with McCain winning 62% to 19% over Huckabee.

American Research Group
Date: 2/27-28
Ohio
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

McCain leads Huckabee among self-described Republicans 63% to 21% and McCain leads among self-described independents and Democrats 65% to 19%, with 11% for Ron Paul. Among men (54% of likely Republican primary voters), it is McCain leads Huckabee 72% to 15%. Among women, McCain leads Huckabee 53% to 27%.

Survey USA
Date: 2/24-25
Ohio
Est. MoE = 4.5% [?]

Quote:

McCain Maintains 30+ Point Lead in Ohio; No Damage From New York Times Lobbyist Story: John McCain decisively wins a Republican Primary in Ohio held today, 59% to 28% for Mike Huckabee to 8% for Ron Paul, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV Columbus, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHIO-TV Dayton, and WKYC-TV Cleveland. McCain appears unaffected in these numbers by a New York Times story that was published after SurveyUSA's last tracking poll was conducted and before this one. Both McCain and Huckabee are drifting sideways. Neither has specific momentum or pronounced erosion since SurveyUSA's last track point. However: Ron Paul is up a couple three ticks, which is just enough on many of SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs to cause both McCain's and Huckabee's trend lines to slope downward.

Public Policy Polling
Date: 2/23-24
Ohio
Est. MoE = 4.7% [?]

Quote:

John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 55-30. The biggest issues for Republicans in the state are the economy and the war, and McCain dominates, leading 61-27 with voters most concerned about the economy and 76-17 with voters whose top issue is the war.

�If Mike Huckabee was looking for a miracle in Ohio, he�s not likely to find it,� said Debnam. �This race is pretty much over.�

University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll
Date: 2/21-24
Ohio
Est. MoE = 5.6% [?]

Quote:

A variety of issues are influencing Republican primary voter decisions about the 2008 presidential race, including: the economy/jobs (30%), homeland security/national defense (16%), the war in Iraq/Iraq policy (9%), health care/health insurance (8%), abortion (7%) and taxes (6%).

American Research Group
Date: 2/23-24
Ohio
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

McCain leads Huckabee among self-described Republicans 47% to 44% and McCain leads among self-described independents and Democrats 68% to 21%. Among men (52% of likely Republican primary voters), it is McCain 45% and Huckabee 43%. Among self-described independents and Democrats, McCain leads Huckabee 57% to 37%.

Decision Analyst
Date: 2/20-21
Ohio
Est. MoE = 4.8% [?]

Quote:

The issues of greatest importance to those who will vote in the Republican Primary are: fighting terrorism (31%); protecting the U.S. from illegal immigration (30%); making the economy stronger and better (29%); character (honesty, ethics, and integrity of candidate) (28%); leadership (ability to manage government, work with world leaders, get things done) (21%); reducing dependence on foreign oil (18%).

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 2/21
Ohio
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]

Quote:

McCain attracts 60% of those who are politically moderate (60%) and 56% of conservative voters. Huckabee attracts 32% of conservative voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Ohio voters and unfavorably by 18%. Huckabee earns positive reviews from 70% of republican voters and negative reviews from 27%. Paul, on the other hand, is viewed favorably by 29% and unfavorably by 57%.

Ohio voters have high expectations for McCain in the general election. Eighty-one percent (81%) believe McCain is at least somewhat likely to win the presidential election. Only 16% find that outcome unlikely.

When it comes to issues, Ohio voters share the same concerns as most other states. The economy is the top issue for 38% of voters, while National Security is the most important issue for 17% of voters. The War in Iraq comes in right behind with 15%.

Survey USA
Date: 2/17-18
Ohio
Est. MoE = 4.4% [?]

Quote:

McCain Knocks Legs Out from Under Huckabee in Ohio, Positioned for Easy Buckeye Win: Two weeks to the Ohio Republican Primary, John McCain is 2:1 atop Mike Huckabee, according to SurveyUSA's latest tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WCMH-TV Columbus, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHIO-TV Dayton, and WKYC-TV Cleveland. In a SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, McCain led by 14. Today he leads by 32. All of Huckabee's core support is eroding, as the Republican party coalesces around McCain. Among Conservatives, Huckabee had led by 3, now trails by 27, a 30-point swing. Among voters who attend religious services regularly, McCain had been up by 1, now is up by 24, a 23-point swing in his direction. Among Pro-Life voters, Huckabee had been tied, now trails McCain by 20.

Survey USA
Date: 2/10-11
Ohio
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]

Quote:

Huckabee Starts with Strong Base in Proportionally Allocated Ohio; Will It Be There in March? Will He? In a Republican Primary today, 02/12/08, the day of the Virginia and Maryland Republican primaries and 21 days until the Ohio Republican Primary, Mike Huckabee supporters have not yet gotten the "rally round the nominee" memo, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WCMH-TV Columbus, and WEWS-TV Cleveland. McCain is at 50%, and well-positioned to capture a majority of Ohio's 88 proportionally allocated delegates. But because Ohio is not Winner-Take-All, Huckabee's 36% is significant, even if only symbolically. Among Conservatives, among those who attend church regularly and among Pro-Life voters, Huckabee and McCain are effectively tied. Among Moderates, McCain leads by 41 points. Among Pro-Choice voters McCain leads by 43 points.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Ohio polls.

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