Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008
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Democrat Polls
Insider Advantage
Date: 4/21
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/22/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: "The undecided vote moved slowly downward between our Sunday night survey and our Monday night round of polling. Since both samples had virtually the same number of respondents, it is fair to conclude that the last minute voters were moving more in Obama�s direction. That said, from my experience, if a voter is still undecided the day before a race, they likely are not voting. If I had to guess, and it would be a guess, I would see this as a 53% or 54% Clinton win. The only way this could be much closer is if this race has been so intense that the undecideds in the poll truly are undecided and they continue to break for Obama. Were that the case, Clinton would win by a much smaller margin, perhaps as little as two or three percent. Obama�s team is betting on this scenario, while Clinton�s folks are hoping that, as far as the undecideds that remain, they will behave as usual and not vote. We shall see.�
Zogby Poll
Date: 4/20-21
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/22/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]
Quote: UTICA, New York � New York's Hillary Clinton continued to pull away from rival Barack Obama of Illinois as the campaigning in Pennsylvania ended and voters prepared to cast ballots today, the latest Newsmax/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows. She now leads Obama, 51% to 41%, having gained three points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, pushing her beyond the poll's margin of error to create a statistically significant lead for the first time in the Pennsylvania daily tracking poll. Pollster John Zogby: "Sounds like a radio station's call letters, but remember WECM � white, ethnic, Catholic, men. That is what put Clinton into her double digit lead here in Pennsylvania...
Survey USA
Date: 4/18-20
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: Southeast PA Breaks For Obama, But Women Carry Clinton To Apparent Victory in Pennsylvania: 24 hours until votes are counted in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend off a late charge from Barack Obama, and carries the symbolically important popular vote, but not by enough to gain material advantage in pledged delegates, according to SurveyUSA's 5th and final tracking poll in this contest, and the first since the two candidates debated 04/16/08. Clinton finishes at 50%, Obama at 44%. Looking only at SurveyUSA numbers, and ignoring the polls that have been released by 12 competing pollsters in PA, Obama gained ground, counter-intuitively, in a week when he was largely on defense and off-message. Last week, SurveyUSA had Clinton ahead by 14 points. Today, in a poll conducted using the identical methodology, the identical professional announcers, and the identical audio, SurveyUSA has Clinton ahead by 6 points. The research was conducted for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. Here's what has changed: In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and most of the state's African American population, the candidates had seesawed in four previous polls, but Obama finishes strongly, ahead by 14 points. Among men, Clinton had led narrowly in 3 of the 4 previous tracking polls, but finishes down 15. Among liberals, Obama began 18 points behind Clinton but finishes 11 points ahead of Clinton. Among those who have not graduated from college, Clinton led by 28 points last week, but by 15 points today. Among voters under age 50, Clinton had led by 8 last week, trails by 8 today. Here's what has not changed: Among women, Clinton in 5 polls has led by 30, 28, 28, 22, and 23 points.Among voters age 50+, Clinton in 5 polls has led by 26, 22, 24, 20, and 20 points.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 4/19-20
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 2.0% [?]
Quote: �With such a close race, the winner of the Pennsylvania primary is going to come down to turnout,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Obama leads 58-32 in the metro Philadelphia area. If there is huge turnout there he has a chance.� When people were initially asked who they supported in the poll Obama showed a 47-43 advantage. Undecided respondents were asked if they were leaning toward one of the candidates and the 49-46 lead comes with those factored in. Obama�s small lead comes from his standard coalition of men, black and younger voters. He leads 55-34 with men and 81-12 with African Americans. He has a 50-39 edge with voters ages 18-29 and 49-41 with those between 30-45. Clinton�s strength comes from women, whites, and older voters, but her margins with those groups are not as large as they have been at other points in the Pennsylvania contest. She leads women (50-41) and senior citizens (48-42) by single digits and will have a hard time scoring the kind of dominant victory she needs if those numbers don�t improve.
Insider Advantage
Date: 4/20
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]
Quote: InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �What�s most interesting about this poll is that about of 12% likely voters remain undecided. �I attribute this to the barrage of negative TV commercials and attack statements coming from both campaigns. �Over the past decades I�ve observed a consistent pattern: When a campaign becomes a blow-for-blow blood-fest played out in news media, that usually drives up the number of undecided voters. We�ll see with Monday night�s survey if the undecideds will break one way or the other,� he said.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 4/20
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]
Quote: Overall, with just one day to go, 7% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided and 3% say there�s a good chance they will change their mind. Early in 2008, most Democratic voters viewed both candidates favorably. That is no longer the case. Just 43% of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Only 42% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Overall, in the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 71% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Obama gets favorable reviews from 69%. Clinton�s favorable ratings in the state peaked in early March at 77%. Obama�s peaked in late March at 73%. This is the fifth straight Rasmussen Reports poll of the race to show Clinton with a single-digit lead. In all five polls, Clinton�s support has been between 47% and 50% while Obama�s range has been from 41% to 44%. The demographic make-up of the state seems to favor Clinton, which has enabled her to retain a modest lead despite being significantly outspent by the Obama campaign. Clinton leads by eighteen percentage points among White Voters and does especially well among White Women. Obama dominates among African-Americans. Obama leads among those who are politically liberal while Clinton has the edge among more moderate and conservative voters. Clinton leads among lower and middle income voters while Obama leads among those who earn more than $75,000 annually. Clinton leads among those who view the economy as the most important issue while Obama is the top choice for those who see the War in Iraq as the highest priority. Clinton leads among voters over 40 while Obama has the edge among younger voters.
Newsmax Zogby
Date: 4/19-20
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Pollster John Zogby: �A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a one-day anomaly � undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are breaking Clinton�s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama�s 38%.
Suffolk University
Date: 4/19-20
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Strategic Vision
Date: 4/18-20
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is most important, one who represents change or one who has experience? (Democrats only) Change 43% Experience 41% Undecided 16%
Quinnipiac University poll
Date: 4/18-20
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 3.1% [?]
Quote: "Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama's campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Obama got off message after his 'bitter' remarks and never regained his momentum, giving Sen. Clinton the opening to fight another day in Indiana and North Carolina. She wins in Western Pennsylvania; he wins in the East. She gets Catholics, white women and blue-collar labor vote. He captures men, blacks and college grads - and enough delegates to keep his edge in the number that counts most."
American Research Group
Date: 4/17-18
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/21/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48% to 47% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 59% to 36%. Clinton leads 63% to 32% among white voters (81% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 86% to 12% among African American voters (15% of likely Democratic primary voters). Clinton leads 52% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (51% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 56% to 39% among voters age 50 and older. Clinton leads 59% to 36% among voters without a college degree (63% of likely voters) and Obama leads 50% to 45% among voters with a college degree. 20% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 32% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
Mason Dixon
Date: 4/17-18
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/20/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads among bowlers, gun owners and hunters in Pennsylvania, a blue-collar trifecta that is helping her hold an edge over rival Barack Obama heading into Tuesday's pivotal primary there. Clinton leads by solid margins in all three slices of working-class Pennsylvania � the political battleground where the two Democrats have waged war for control of the state, according to a new poll conducted for McClatchy Newspapers, MSNBC and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The one group where she does not have a solid lead is among beer drinkers; they split evenly between her and Obama.
Zogby NewsMax Poll
Date: 4/18-19
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/20/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Pollster John Zogby: "Okay, so let's play Confound the Pollsters. Obama, who polled a mere 40% yesterday had a good today at 46% to Clinton's 44%. We quadruple-checked our Saturday sample and it is solid. Perhaps the buzz from both his San Francisco statements and the ABC debate has subsided. He picked up a few more points in Philadelphia and the east, where he has been leading, in the central state area, and up-ticked a bit with men. Clinton seems to have added a few points in the Pittsburgh region. But a very close examination of these numbers over the five days we have been tracking shows that it is whites and Catholics who are undecided. They clearly do not like Clinton and are definitely not breaking for Obama. They compose a pretty big chunk of Democratic voters who say they will vote for McCain in the general election. If this small group of white/Catholic undecideds do not vote, Obama can win Pennsylvania if he is able to get out his base of young voters, African American voters, and Very Liberal voters. If those white/Catholics do vote, then they will probably vote for Clinton and she can conceivably meet the 10-point victory threshold that meets pundits' expectations. It looked like she was moving some of these voters after the debate, but today is a different story. Too soon to tell."
Zogby NewsMax Poll
Date: 4/17-18
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/20/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Pollster John Zogby: "Undecideds are down to 8% and they have slowly begun to break for Clinton. Obama slipped in the one-day sample to only 40%. His lead in the eastern part of the state is still in double-digits but slipping, and his huge advantage among young voters is narrowing a bit. Clinton has a 39-point lead among Catholics and a 19 point lead among whites. She continues to get higher marks on 'understanding Pennsylvania' and handling the economy." This latest Newsmax/Zogby two-day tracking poll shows Clinton had a good day in central Pennsylvania, where she has moved ahead of Obama by 20 points, a significant improvement over earlier polling. In western Pennsylvania, she continues to enjoy a solid lead, while Obama continues to enjoy a double-digit lead in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. Clinton has also been able to minimize her disadvantage among men while maintaining a solid lead among women. And she has closed the gap among likely Democratic primary voters age 35 to 54�a key demographic in this race. Voters younger than age 35 heavily favor Obama, while voters older than 54 strongly favor Clinton.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 4/17
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/19/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]
Quote: Perhaps the worst news in the survey for Clinton has nothing to do with the race getting closer. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that the Superdelegates should honor the results of the primaries even if �something happens to convince Superdelegates that Hillary Clinton would have a better chance of beating John McCain.� If Clinton is deemed more electable, just 33% believe that the Superdelegates should select her over Obama. Clinton�s only viable path to the nomination is to convince the Superdelegates that they should vote for her despite Obama�s edge among pledged delegates. The survey also found that just 21% believe it�s a good idea for the Democrats to have Superdelegates. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree. In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 70% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 71%. Those figures are down slightly for both candidates. An Associated Press video report suggests that Pennsylvania voters are tiring of the campaign. Primary voters see little ideological difference between the candidates�48% see Obama as politically moderate while 49% say the same about Clinton. Nationally, among all voters, a majority see both Democratic candidates as politically liberal. Forty-eight percent (48%) say they have closely followed news stories about the Wednesday night debate. Another 35% say they have followed that news Somewhat Closely. Twelve percent (12%) say that something in the debate caused them to change their mind about how they will vote. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of the Primary Voters say they are at least Somewhat Likely to vote for Clinton against John McCain in November. Seventy-three percent (73%) are Somewhat or Very Likely to vote for Obama against McCain.
Newsmax / Zogby Poll
Date: 4/15-16
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/17/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Pollster John Zogby�"This is not a year for negative campaigning and Clinton's pounding of Obama on his controversial description of small town voters in Pennsylvania does not seem to be working. Obama leads in the Philadelphia and eastern part of the Commonwealth, among African Americans, and Very Liberal Pennsylvanians. He also has a slight lead among voters in union households and has an 18 point margin over those who have lost a job. Clinton maintains her lead among whites, Catholics, Liberals, and Hispanics. "The gender gap is huge with Obama leading among men by 15 and Clinton leading among women by 15. But Clinton holds a wide advantage on the question of understanding Pennsylvania (58%-27%) and handling the economy of the country (47%-38%). She also is ahead in understanding the personal financial situation of individuals (41%-35%). "On the other hand, Pennsylvanians by a two to one margin (60% to 29%) are more likely to agree with supporters of Obama that voters in Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic situation than with Clinton and critics of Obama that he is an elitist who does not understand working people. "On the key questions of who they would rather have a beer with: Clinton 38%, Obama 39%�with 15% undecided.
Franklin Marshall College Poll
Date: 4/8-13
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/16/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]
Quote: These demographic differences will be the key feature of the campaign as the race enters the final week. Differential turnout by gender, age, and region of the state will determine whether the state moves toward one candidate or the other. For example, respondents from Philadelphia and Southeastern Pennsylvania represent 31 percent of likely voters in the sample but represent 36 percent of the state�s registered Democrats. Since Obama leads among these voters, turnout that is equivalent to registration in the Southeast would mean a closer race. The same is true for the youngest voters (ages 18-34), who represent only seven percent of likely voters but constitute about one-quarter of all registered Democrats. The number of registered Democrats in Pennsylvania has increased markedly since November, with about 275,000 new or party change applications going to the Democrats, representing about seven percent of the state�s registered Democrats. The survey finds that 62 percent of Democrats who registered within the past three months plan to vote for Obama. Four in ten (39%) Democrats feel that the news media has been harder on Clinton compared to only five percent who feel the media has been harder on Obama. Although more Democrats feel Clinton has been treated unfairly by the media, more also say that her campaign has been unfair to Obama (28%) than vice versa (18% say Obama�s campaign has been unfair to Clinton). Almost all (94%) registered Democrats have seen a television ad for the Obama campaign, and nearly nine in ten (88%) have seen a Clinton commercial. Democrats believe
Public Policy Polling
Date: 4/14-15
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/16/08
Est. MoE = 2.9% [?]
Quote: Obama�s increase in support since last week comes from small gains across the board. He�s cut Clinton�s margin with white voters, expanded his advantage with black voters, reduced Clinton�s lead with women, and increased his percentage of the male vote. �PPP has been in the field now in both Pennsylvania and North Carolina since Obama�s �bitter� remarks and has seen no ill effects for Barack Obama,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �It doesn�t appear the Clinton campaign has been able to gain any momentum with this issue.� PPP showed Obama up by 20 points in North Carolina in polling conducted over the weekend, in line with an 18-21 point advantage he has shown over PPP�s last four surveys in the state. �With our polls consistently showing a close race in Pennsylvania, either candidate has a decent shot at winning this primary,� said Debnam. �It just depends on how good a job each campaign does over the next week.�
Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg Poll
Date: 4/10-14
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]
Quote: In Pennsylvania, the flap seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views. Many Democratic voters, however, see Obama's association with Wright as posing a problem for him in the general election -- 46% in Pennsylvania said they expected it to hamper him in a contest with presumptive Republican nominee John McCain; in Indiana, 47% agreed with that, and in North Carolina, 42%. "I can't help but thinking the church is a big influence on him," said Roberta Rowe, a retiree in West Middlesex, Pa. "I'd like to feel completely comfortable, but that one issue there is really gnawing at me." In the follow-up interviews, some voters complained that the criticism of his pastor and the allegations that Obama is elitist are sideshows. "All this back-and-forth is not really staying on the issues that I want to hear from" the White House candidates, said Joseph Robinson, a disabled worker in Lafayette, Ind. He was unmoved by Clinton's charge that Obama, because of his small-town comment, had shown he was out of touch with many Americans. "She went to Yale, he went to Harvard," said Robinson, referring to the respective law schools from which they graduated. The poll found Clinton leading Obama 46% to 41% in Pennsylvania -- a far cry from the double-digit margins she held in earlier polls.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 4/14
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]
Quote: Among voters from households where someone owns a gun, Clinton leads by seventeen points. Voters from other households are more evenly divided. Clinton leads among voters who say faith and religion are Somewhat or Very Important. Obama leads among those who say such topics are Not Very Important or Not at All Important. Sixty percent (60%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters in Pennsylvania say that it is Very Important for the government to enforce the borders and reduce illegal immigration. Among these voters, Clinton leads by sixteen. Looking at the other aspect of the immigration debate, 30% say it�s Very Important to legalize the status of those who have come to the country illegally. Among these voters, Clinton and Obama are essentially even. Twenty-three percent (23%) of Likely Primary Voters rate their personal finances as poor. Among these voters, the candidates are even�Obama wins 46% of their votes, Clinton 44%. Nationally, 56% of all voters disagree with controversial statements made by Barack Obama on why cling to religion, guns, and �anti-immigrant� attitudes.
Survey USA
Date: 4/12-14
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]
Quote: One Week to PA Democratic Primary, Clinton Still Atop Obama By Double Digits: In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 04/15/08, one week to the vote, Hillary Clinton remains comfortably atop Barack Obama, 54% to 40%, according to SurveyUSA's 4th tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Scranton. In 3 previous releases, SurveyUSA has shown Clinton ahead by 19 points one month ago, 12 points two weeks ago, 18 points last week and, today, 14 points. More should be made of the consistency across these polls than the comparatively small movement from one to the other. Clinton has polled at 55%, 53%, 56%, and 54%. Obama has polled at 36%, 41%, 38%, 40%. SurveyUSA does not show the contest necessarily tightening, nor does SurveyUSA show the race necessarily "tight." Clinton has a slight advantage among men, as she has in 3 of 4 SurveyUSA polls. Clinton has an significant advantage among women, as she has in 4 of 4 polls. Of note: Obama has gained ground among Democrats who attend religious services regularly. He had trailed Clinton by as many as 19 points among regular church goers, but today closes to within 7. Clinton and Obama are even among those who have graduated college. Clinton leads 2:1 among those who have not.The contest remains tight in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia; the lead has changed hands in each of the 4 tracking polls. In Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton gained ground this week. In West Central PA, which includes Johnstown, Clinton retook ground this week that Obama had claimed earlier. In South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg, Obama gained ground. In NE PA, which includes Scranton, and in NW PA, which includes Erie, there was little movement. Among liberals, Obama moved atop Clinton for the first time.
Strategic Vision
Date: 4/11-13
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Do you agree or disagree with Senator Barack Obama when he said, that in small towns in Pennsylvania, people "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations?" (Democrats Only) Agree 31%. Disagree 55%. Undecided 14%. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is most important, one who represents change or one who has experience? (Democrats only) Change 41%. Experience 41%. Undecided 18%.
Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 4/9-13
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/15/08
Est. MoE = 2.1% [?]
Quote: "Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama's drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "She even gained back some ground in the Philadelphia suburbs - the area where elections are won and lost in the Keystone State. She now trails Obama by just two points in this critical area, while she was 11 points behind a week ago."
Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc
Date: 4/6-10
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/14/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]
Quote: �Clinton�s 3-point lead is within the poll�s 4% margin of error, so this race is now a virtual toss-up,� said Jim Lee, the firm�s president, who conducted the poll for public dissemination. �Obama has a strong 62/19 favorable to unfavorable ratio in name ID (better than 3:1), and has succeeded in building up his positive image in the state, something he said all along he was capable of doing if voters had more time to get to know him. At the same time, Clinton�s name ID shows a higher negative than Obama, with 25% having an unfavorable opinion of her compared to 61% who view Clinton as favorable,� Lee added. Clinton still leads in the culturally conservative Southwest (57/17), the Northeast (44/26) and Central �T�/Johnstown-Altoona media market (40/32), but her leads in these areas has narrowed in comparison to March when she was winning with bigger margins. Perhaps most surprising is Clinton�s shrinking margin in the Northeast, her natural strength given her family ties to the area, where her 38-point, 56/18 margin over Obama in March has now shrunk to 18 points (a swing of 20). Meanwhile, Obama has strengthened his lead in the Harrisburg/South Central region (now 39/29), and surpassed Clinton in the 4 suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia (now 45/40), whereas Clinton led in March by a 42/35 margin; Obama�s 50/30 lead in Philadelphia is unchanged from our earlier poll. �Obama�s media efforts are clearly paying off, he�s holding his base in the socially liberal areas of the state, and at the same time, has chipped away at her lead in areas where he knows he can�t win, but can at least have a respectable showing, namely in Central and Western PA, where Reagan Democrats are still key to a Clinton victory,� Lee said.
American Research Group
Date: 4/11-13
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/14/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48% to 44% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 64% to 31%. Clinton leads 64% to 29% among white voters (82% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 79% to 18% among African American voters (14% of likely Democratic primary voters). Clinton leads 52% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (50% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 62% to 31% among voters age 50 and older. 10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 23% of likely Democratic primary voters say that excessive exposure to Obama's advertising is causing them to support Clinton.
Newsmax / Zogby Poll
Date: 4/9-10
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/12/08
Est. MoE = 3.1% [?]
Quote: Clinton wins 47% support to Obama's 43% among likely Democratic primary voters, the survey shows. Another 2% are still holding out for someone else, while 8% said they are yet undecided. Clinton enjoys strength in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, and central Pennsylvania, including Harrisburg, both regions of which are heavily populated by conservative Democrats. Obama enjoys an edge in the eastern part of the state, including Philadelphia. Obama leads among younger Democratic Party voters, while Clinton leads among older voters. The age break point appears to be age 35. Among those likely voters under age 35, Obama leads by a 61% to 32% margin, while Clinton leads among those over age 35 by a 50% to 39% margin. It is important to note that Pennsylvania's pool of likely voters over age 35 is much larger than the pool of voters younger than age 35. Among men, Obama leads Clinton by a 48% to 40% margin, while Clinton leads among women, 53% to 39%. Among men, 9% are undecided, while 7% of women have yet to make up their minds. Race is playing a big factor in the contest here. Obama leads among African American voters, 77% to 21% for Clinton. But among whites, Clinton leads by a 53% to 36% margin. Among Catholic voters, Clinton wins 62% support, compared to 29% support for Obama. But, among Protestants, Obama leads Clinton, 50% to 40%. The Newsmax/Zogby survey shows two issues dominate in the minds of Pennsylvania Democrats - first and foremost the economy, and to a lesser degree, the war in Iraq. More than half - 53% - said the economy was their top concern in making a choice for the nomination, while 32% said the war was their top concern. This was the case in every region of the state and among every age group in the state. On the question of which candidate is most likely to help the respondent's personal financial situation, Clinton held a small edge over Obama, 41% to 36%. She held a slight edge among men on the question, and a slightly larger single-digit advantage among women. Asked which of the candidates would do the most for the middle class, Clinton held a statistically insignificant 44% to 42% advantage.
Temple University
Date: 3/27-4/9
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/11/08
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]
Quote: The contest is strikingly close, however, among white men, with Obama leading in that group, 40 � 35. That group also is especially likely to express equally favorable opinions about Clinton and Obama. �White men stand out as the group with the most ambivalence about the candidates, as a group and individually,� said Hagen. �That is certainly the reason the candidates have focused so much of their attention on white men in recent weeks.� The race remains close enough that turnout will be critical, especially in the all-important allocation of convention delegates. The two sides bring different assets to the turnout contest. The Clinton campaign has the backing of more of Pennsylvania�s top elected officials, but the Obama campaign will have more money to spend to get out the vote. As the Poll shows, supporters of the two candidates also may be motivated to vote by quite different considerations: Clinton supporters are more likely to have a history of voting, while Obama supporters are more engaged in this particular election. The difference is due partly to the age difference between the two groups�the average Obama supporter is seven years younger than the average Clinton supporter�and partly to the success of the Obama campaign in attracting the support of people with little political experience. �Habit and enthusiasm are both very important ingredients in getting people to the polls, and these camps have the two in different measures,� according to Hagen. �It will be fascinating to see how the differences between these coalitions and between these campaign organizations interact to determine the primary�s result.�
TIME / SRBI
Date: 4/2-6
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/10/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: There also appears to be a measure of deep anti-Obama sentiment in Clinton's Keystone State coalition. Roughly a quarter of Clinton voters � 26%, the poll found � say they "would be more likely" to vote for John McCain in the general election if Obama is eventually the Democratic nominee. By contrast, only 16% of Obama's backers report they would be likely to vote for McCain if Clinton emerged as the party's nominee. Though Obama won majorities of white voters earlier in the primary season, he has struggled more recently to maintain those margins, and that trend appears to be holding in Pennsylvania. Obama is getting the votes of 80% of the state's black Democrats but only 30% of white voters. Clinton is winning only 8% of blacks, but is backed by 51% of the white voters. Some 8% of whites and 12% of blacks are undecided. A similar pattern can be seen in how Keystone Democrats of differing incomes regard the two candidates. Some 55% of white Democrats who make less than $55,000 back Clinton in Pennsylvania, while only 22% in that financial bracket favor Obama. Above $50,000, the state's white Democrats split almost evenly: 45% support Clinton and 41% are backing Obama. The TIME poll shows other advantages for Clinton in Pennsylvania. When leaners � voters who have not firmly decided whom to vote for but are leaning one way or the other � are added in, Clinton's six point lead grows to eight points, 49% to 41%. Here, too, one can see signs of Clinton's inherent strengths among women: Clinton does better with both male and female leaners than Obama, but women would break for her in greater numbers than men would, the survey reports.
Insider Advantage
Date: 4/8
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/10/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]
Quote: InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �Sen. Clinton has made progress among both men and among all white voters. Her support among women also appears to be consolidating. �My guess is that whatever damage she might have sustained by recent gaffs and media missteps have been largely discounted by the public. The race in Pennsylvania is clearly still fluid. But, at least for now, it�s tending back towards the result that was originally anticipated by most � a Clinton lead. �Her big task now is to maintain a double-digit lead and expand on it; Obama�s is to force her back into a single-digit race. Clinton needs a resounding victory in Pennsylvania to relieve the pressure on her to quit the presidential race,� said Towery.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 4/7-8
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/9/08
Est. MoE = 2.9% [?]
Quote: �Hillary Clinton�s made a small rebound in the last week to get the lead back,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �But this does seem to be confirmation that it�s a pretty tight race in Pennsylvania and could go either way depending on what the campaigns do over the next two weeks.� The survey also found that 37% of likely voters are concerned that the drawn out primary will hurt Democratic prospects of winning in the fall. Obama has a 47-41 lead with those voters. Clinton is leading 50-40 among the 52% of respondents who are not worried the contest continuing will impede the chances of defeating John McCain. Obama has a 53-35 advantage in the Philadelphia metro area, while Clinton leads every other region of the state.
Strategic Vision
Date: 4/5-7
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/9/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: 12. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is most important, one who represents change or one who has experience? (Democrats only) Change 43%. Experience 40%. Undecided 17%.
Survey USA
Date: 4/6-8
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/9/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: PA Women, Whites, Stand by Hillary, Turn Back The Clock On Obama: In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 04/08/08, two weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 56% to 38%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. The results are almost identical to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago. Then, Clinton led by 19. Today, 18. In between, however, in a SurveyUSA tracking poll released last week, Obama had closed to within 12 points. What happened in the past 7 days? 1st: Some of the men who flirted with Obama at the end of March have returned to Clinton. Other men have moved to the sidelines. Last week, Obama led by 7 among men. Men were 46% of likely voters. Today, Clinton leads among men. Men are 42% of likely voters. 2nd: Obama lost ground among voters age 35 to 49. A week ago, he had caught Clinton in this age group. Today, he's down 18. By contrast, there is no movement among voters age 50+. Clinton's lead among voters 50+ is stable across all 3 tracking polls. 3rd: In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and which makes up 42% of likely Democratic voters, Clinton had a good week, Obama a bad week. Clinton is above 50% for the first time and Obama is now down by 9 in a region he must win to carry the state. In Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton polls at 60% for the first time, 25 points atop Obama. Only in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown, has there been consistent movement toward Obama. 4th: Among moderates, Obama lost key ground while Clinton gained ground. Clinton now leads by 24 points, 60% to 36%. Obama also lost ground among Liberals. And while Obama's support fell among Conservatives, so did Clinton's. 5th: Interviewing for SurveyUSA's 04/01/08 release, one week ago, occurred in the middle of Obama's 6-day bus tour through Pennsylvania, which began on 03/28/08. Obama may have benefited a week ago from the media spotlight. Summary: The complete absence of movement among whites and among women is striking. Among white voters, Clinton polled at 61% in all 3 tracking polls. Among women, Clinton was at 62% a month ago, 62% last week, and 61% today. These two unwavering core constituencies help make Clinton so formidable in the Keystone state.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 4/7
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/9/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: Clinton is now viewed favorably by 75% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 72%. Those figures are little changed from a week ago. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. If Obama is nominated, 61% of Clinton supporters say they are likely to vote for him against John McCain. That�s up from 56% a week ago. On the other hand, if Clinton is nominated, just 67% of Obama supporters say they are likely to vote for her against McCain. That�s unchanged over the past week. Forty-five percent (45%) in Pennsylvania say it�s very likely the contest will not be resolved until the convention in Denver. That�s down from 51% a week ago and includes 58% of Clinton voters along with 29% of those who support Obama. Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White Voters while Obama attracts 86% of the African-American vote.
Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 4/3-6
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 2.7% [?]
Quote: "With two weeks to go, Sen. Barack Obama is knocking on the door of a major political upset in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Obama is not only building on his own constituencies, but is taking away voters in Sen. Hillary Clinton's strongest areas - whites including white women, voters in the key swing Philadelphia suburbs and those who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The Pennsylvania primary is like a game of horseshoes: Sen. Obama needs only to come close to be considered the winner - taking away, perhaps fatally, Sen. Clinton's argument she is the candidate best able to defeat Sen. John McCain in critical swing states like Pennsylvania."
American Research Group
Date: 4/5-6
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 53% to 36% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 52% to 39%. Clinton leads 52% to 36% among white voters (80% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 9% among African American voters (16% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 52% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (52% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 38% among voters age 50 and older. 27% of all likely Democratic primary voters and 41% of likely Democratic primary voters age 18 to 49 say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
Insider Advantage / Majority Opinion Research
Date: 4/3
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/4/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]
Quote: Whites: Clinton 49%, Obama 40%. Blacks: Obama 56%, Clinton 29%. Men: Obama 47%, Clinton 41%. Women: Clinton 49%, Obama 38%.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 3/31-4/1
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/2/08
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]
Quote: �In the last few weeks there has been increasing attention given to the fact that a continuing divisive Democratic nomination fight could hurt the party�s chances of defeating John McCain this fall,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �The major movement in Obama�s direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it�s time to wrap it up.� Obama is narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his customary significant advantage with black voters. He leads that group 75-17. Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a 50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15 points among men while trailing by 10 points with women.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Pennsylvania polls.
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