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Democrat Polls
Morning Call Muhlenberg College Poll
Date: 3/27-4/2
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/4/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]
Quote: ''After a barnstorming tour, all kinds of media attention throughout the state, plus his ad buy, you'd really start to see some questions raised if he wasn't having some traction in the polls,'' said Borick, director of Muhlenberg College's Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown. ''Obama should keep his distance from her,'' said poll respondent Bernice Bandel of Lower Macungie Township, a former Republican who said Bill Clinton's tenure in the White House left a bad taste in her mouth. ''I don't want to have her in there with him.'' ''It is going to be overwhelming for whoever gets in,'' said Bandel, a 60-year-old retired cosmetologist whose husband also switched his registration to Democrat to support Obama. ''He is just a very intelligent man, and I think he'll surround himself with the right people.''
Strategic Vision
Date: 3/28-30
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/4/08
Est. MoE = 2.8% [?]
Quote: Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance? Approve 24% Disapprove 67% Undecided 9%. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq? Approve 28% Disapprove 63% Undecided 9%.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 3/31
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]
Quote: Support for Clinton slipped from 52% early in March, to 51% in mid-month, 49% a week ago, and 47% today. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37% to 42%. Obama recently received a key endorsement from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey and has also spent more on television ads than Clinton. If Obama is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State, it would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama currently leads Clinton nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, while an Obama victory could end the nomination battle, Clinton remains ahead in the state and recently demonstrated her ability to finish strong in the Ohio and Texas Primaries. Tensions clearly remain in the contest. If Obama is nominated, just 56% of Clinton supporters say they are likely to vote for him against John McCain. Forty percent (40%) of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania say they are not likely to vote for Obama. On the other hand, if Clinton is nominated, just 67% of Obama supporters say they are likely to vote for her against McCain. Twenty-nine percent (29%) are not. Just 21% of Pennsylvania�s Primary Voters say that Clinton should drop out of the race while 18% would like Obama to leave. Those figures are similar to results from a recent national survey. Fifty-one percent (51%) in Pennsylvania say it�s very likely the contest will not be resolved until the convention in Denver. That figure includes 61% of Clinton voters and 38% of those who support Obama. Overall, another 33% say a convention decision is Somewhat Likely. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they have followed news stories Very Closely about Clinton�s Bosnia misstatements. Another 27% have followed those stories Somewhat Closely. Overall, 19% consider that issue to be Very Important in their voting decision. That figure includes 6% of Clinton supporters and 36% of Obama voters. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Pennsylvania voters say that most politicians lie or embellish the truth when discussing their own accomplishments. Only 12% disagree. Clinton voters, by a 64% to 26% margin, believe that American society is generally fair and decent. Obama voters are evenly divided�45% hold that optimistic view while another 45% say society is generally unfair and discriminatory.
Quinnipiac University
Date: 3/24-31
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/2/08
Est. MoE = 2.5% [?]
Quote: Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent with women, and ties Obama 46 - 46 percent with men. Obama leads 51 - 42 percent among voters under 45 years old, while Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among voters over 45. By a 48 - 42 percent margin, Pennsylvania registered voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Obama gets a 49 - 31 percent favorability and McCain gets 47 - 31 percent. "Sen. Clinton's imaginary snipers, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, these events have taken only a small toll on Sen. Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters - blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State. Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far."
Survey USA
Date: 3/29-31
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/2/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Democratic Primary: Pennsylvania Men Move to Obama But Woman Stick with Hillary -- In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 04/01/08, 3 weeks until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 53% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, Clinton is down 2, Obama is up 5. Clinton had led by 19, now 12. The movement comes almost entirely from men. Clinton had led by 5, now trails by 7, a 12-point swing to Obama. Among women, Clinton had led by 30, now leads by 28, largely unchanged. Among voters age 50+, Clinton had led by 26, now leads by 22. Among voters under 50, Clinton had led by 12, now leads by 2, a 10-point swing to Obama. In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and which makes up 43% of likely Democratic voters, the candidates have traded places: Clinton had been up 2; she is now down 3. In Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton had led by 31, now by 17, a 14-point swing to Obama. In NW PA, which includes Erie ... in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown ... and in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg ... each of which is small by itself ... there is movement to Obama, which, when the 3 regions are combined, is worth noting. In NE PA, which includes Scranton, there is movement to Clinton. Among Conservative Democrats, and among Pro-Life Democrats, there is movement to Obama. Clinton continues to dominate among voters focused on the Economy (#1 issue) and Health Care (#3) issue. Obama has gained ground but Clinton continues to lead among voters focused on Iraq (#2 issue).
American Research Group
Date: 3/26-27
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/31/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 61% to 30%. Clinton leads 60% to 30% among white voters (79% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 83% to 11% among African American voters (17% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 46% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (53% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 60% to 32% among voters age 50 and older. 13% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 23% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 3/24
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/26/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: Clinton is now viewed favorably by 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. That�s down from 76% in the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 71%, a figure that is little changed from 72% earlier in the month. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, just 55% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. That�s down two points from 57%. If Clinton is the nominee, just 55% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain. That�s down nine points from 64%.
Franklin & Marshall College/Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL TV/Pittsburgh Tribune Review/WTAE TV/Times Shamrock Newspapers
Date: 3/11-16
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/20/08
Est. MoE = 5.7% [?]
Quote: Jerry Shuster, a political communications professor at the University of Pittsburgh, said the furor over Wright's comments must have impacted the results. Joseph DiSarro, chairman of the political science department at Washington & Jefferson College, said Clinton's increased lead is not a surprise. "Considering the losses that Obama took in Texas and Ohio, and when you add to it the negativity of the comments attributed to Reverend Wright, that's two shots to the body that Obama is having trouble dealing with," DiSarro said. "However, anybody who counts him out is making a big mistake. This is a very gifted politician." The poll shows the percentage of Democratic voters who view Obama favorably plunged by 10 points to 47 percent since a Franklin & Marshall Poll last month. His unfavorable rating jumped from 16 percent to 25 percent. Clinton is viewed favorably by 65 percent of those polled and unfavorably by 18 percent. Those ratings are similar to polls taken over the past year.
Quinnipiac University
Date: 3/10-16
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/20/08
Est. MoE = 2.7% [?]
Quote: "The momentum is clearly Sen. Clinton's as she firms up her traditional coalition of women, white males, non-college, rural and older voters in Pennsylvania. Her endorsement by Philadelphia's black Mayor, Michael Nutter, is cutting slightly into Obama's overwhelming edge among black voters, but clearly the split among black and white voters is growing," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Clinton leads in the bellwether Philadelphia suburbs by almost the same margin she leads statewide," Richards added. "And don't forget powerhouse Gov. Ed Rendell is putting all the king's horses and all the king's men into the Clinton campaign. Anything can happen in this crazy, unpredictable Democratic race, but this week, Big Mo is on Clinton's side." By a 71 - 23 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 61 - 19 percent for Obama, contributing to Clinton's lead in the primary.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 3/15-16
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/20/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: �The big story in the Presidential race over the last week has been the comments of Barack Obama�s pastor about America,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �It appears this issue has hurt him a good deal with likely primary voters in Pennsylvania.� Clinton even appears to be making in roads among black voters in the state. She trails just 63-27 with that group, which Obama has tended to get over 80% of the vote from in key primary states so far. She has a 40 point lead, 63-23, with white voters. This poll shows the largest deficit Obama has faced in Pennsylvania so far in 2008. �There is plenty of time for Obama to make a recovery in Pennsylvania,� said Debnam. �But he�s definitely a victim of the 24 hour news cycle right now. He needs to get the spotlight turned back on Clinton quick.� Clinton also led across all age groups in the poll, with the race tight among 18-45 year olds but Clinton showing a significant advantage with voters over the age of 45.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 3/12
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/13/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: The economy is seen as the top issue by 53% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, but they differ as to what must be done. Forty-six percent (46%) say it�s most important to reduce income inequality while 45% say the priority should be on generating more economic growth. Comments by former Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro have caused a stir nationally and 66% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters have been following the story at least somewhat closely. Ferraro recently told a newspaper that "if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position." Clinton voters are fairly evenly divided on Ferraro�s comment�39% agree and 47% disagree. Obama voters overwhelmingly reject Ferraro�s premise�93% disagree with her statement while only 4% agree. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Black voters believe Ferraro�s comments were racist. Just 23% of White voters agree. Ferraro also said that Clinton was treated unfairly by a �sexist media.� Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Clinton supporters agree with that statement while 26% disagree. Obama voters disagree by an 85% to 9% margin. Among all Likely Democratic Primary Voters, 55% believe Obama has received better treatment from the media while 20% say Clinton has received the better coverage. By a 72% to 10% margin, Clinton voters believe Obama has been the media favorite. Obama voters are evenly divided. Overall, 44% believe Clinton will do better in the fall campaign against John McCain. Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe Obama will be the better general election candidate. By a 43% to 38% margin, Likely Democratic Primary voters in Pennsylvania believe Obama will be the nominee. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Obama voters believe their candidate will win. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Clinton supporters expect Obama to win as well.
Strategic Vision
Date: 3/7-9
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/13/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is most important, one who represents change or one who has experience? (Democrats only) Change 45%, Experience 39%, Undecided 16%.
Triad Strategies/Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)
Date: 3/5-10
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/13/08
Est. MoE = 4.4% [?]
Quote: "What would you say is the single most important problem facing Pennsylvania today, that is, the one that you would like to see resolved by your state elected officials?" Open-ended Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 32%, Taxes 12%, Health care/Prescription drugs 10%, Drugs/Crime/Violence 9%, Education/Schools 6%, Gas/Energy prices 6%, Streets/Roads/Transportation 4%, Other 14%, None/Unsure 7%.
Survey USA
Date: 3/8-10
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/12/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Obama Plays 2nd Fiddle to Clinton in Pennsylvania Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 03/11/08, six weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 55% to 36%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. Obama and Clinton are effectively tied in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia, but Clinton leads everywhere else. She is up 2:1 in SW PA, which includes Pittsburgh; is up 5:4 in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg; is up 4:1 in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown; is up 5:3 in NE PA, which includes Wilkes-Barre; and is up 4:1 in NW PA, which includes Erie.Clinton leads 2:1 among whites; Obama leads 3:1 among blacks. Clinton leads by 5 among men, by 30 among women. She leads by 12 among those under age 50, leads by 26 among those age 50+.On the Economy, which is most important to Democratic voters in PA, Clinton leads by 24 points. On Health Care, next most important, Clinton leads by 32 points. Among voters focused on Iraq, the two are effectively tied.
American Research Group
Date: 3/7-8
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/11/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]
Quote: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 59% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 63% to 27%. Clinton leads 63% to 29% among white voters (78% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 7% among African American voters (18% of likely Democratic primary voters). Clinton leads 47% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (55% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 58% to 37% among voters age 50 and older. 16% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 28% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 3/5
Pennsylvania
Added: 3/7/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]
Quote: In late February, before Clinton�s comeback victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, the former First Lady�s lead in the Keystone State was just four percentage points. The big difference between that poll and the current result is found a among men. Clinton now leads by seventeen percentage points among women and eleven among men. In the previous survey, she was ahead by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men. On another hot topic, 25% of Likely Primary Voters in Pennsylvania say that the North American Free Trade Agreement�NAFTA�has been good for the United States. Forty-three percent (43%) have the opposite view. Clinton leads by twelve percentage points among union members.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Pennsylvania polls.
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One of the biggest perturbations of Random Digit Dialing polling (RDD) is the accidental calling of business phone numbers. So we track these numbers and report to you the prefixes within each area code most likely to be reserved for business use.
Business Listings By Area Code: 201, 202, 203, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 225, 228, 229, 239, 240, 248, 250, 251, 252, 253, 256, 260, 262, 267, 269, 270, 281, 283, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 307, 309, 310, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 323, 325, 330, 334, 336, 337, 347, 352, 353, 360, 361, 386, 401, 402, 404, 405, 406, 407, 408, 409, 410, 412, 413, 414, 415, 417, 419, 423, 425, 432, 434, 435, 440, 443, 469, 478, 479, 480, 484, 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, 507, 508, 509, 510, 512, 513, 515, 516, 517, 518, 520, 530, 540, 541, 559, 561, 562, 563, 570, 571, 573, 574, 580, 585, 586, 601, 602, 603, 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 612, 614, 615, 616, 617, 619, 623, 626, 630, 631, 636, 641, 646, 650, 651, 660, 661, 662, 678, 682, 701, 702, 703, 704, 706, 707, 708, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 724, 727, 731, 732, 734, 740, 757, 760, 763, 765, 770, 773, 774, 775, 781, 785, 786, 787, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 808, 810, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 830, 831, 832, 843, 845, 847, 850, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 863, 864, 865, 866, 870, 877, 888, 901, 903, 904, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 925, 928, 931, 936, 937, 940, 941, 949, 951, 952, 954, 956, 970, 971, 972, 973, 978, 979, 980, 985, 989. |
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