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Research 2000 for DailyKos.comAdded: 10/18/08
Research 2000 for DailyKos.com
Senate Wicker (R) 47 (48) 12 percent of African Americans remain undecided (for the presidential question as well, suggesting that these individuals didn't feel comfortable talking to a pollster -- evidence of the "reverse Bradley" effect that undercounted Obama's support in the polls in Southern states during the primary). Those black "undecided" voters should be worth another two points for Musgrove. So the rest of the margin will need to come from either white voters, or increased turnout among African Americans. This poll assumes that African Americans will make up 37 percent of the vote. In 2004, exit polls pegged the black vote at 34 percent, so Research 2000 is already assuming heightened African American turnout. And interest in the election in Mississippi is certainly at record levels. In the presidential, McCain leads Obama 50-40. DavidNYC wrote a piece back in May looking at what it would take to win Mississippi. Bottom line? 40 percent of African American turnout and 20 percent of the white vote to Obama. We won't know what black turnout will look like until election day, but as for white support, Obama is just at 15 percent. Amazingly, that's more than Kerry got in 2004 -- 14 percent. So it's not necessarily a reaction to Obama being black. It's a reaction to him being a Democrat. Musgrove is in better shape because he's garnering 24 percent of the white vote. It'll be a tough state for Democrats as long as they're unable to make inroads with white voters in the poorest state in the union.
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