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Research 2000 for DailyKos.comAdded: 10/20/08
Research 2000 for DailyKos.com
We're seeing similar movement as in North Dakota. Polling 9/16-17, R2K spotted McCain a 53-40 lead. Last week, that had closed to 45-45. I'm polling South Dakota this coming week, to see if these trends are bleeding into neighboring states. Obama's surge in Montana come from an eight-point gain among Democrats, a four-point gain with Republicans, and a 14-point gain with independents. Unlike North Dakota, the Obama campaign never went dark here. It's an inexpensive state, and Obama has had ads running in heavy rotation. Like North Dakota, Montana's three electoral votes won't be the margin between victory and defeat. If he wins Montana, he will be well over 300 EVs. But it'll be more evidence that conservatism has few strongholds left, that even states that went Bush by 19 points in 2004 are in reach, and that the dramatic political realignment in many parts of the Mountain West remains on track. And to rub salt in the GOP's wounds, it would be REALLY nice to take some of that big, empty space on the map and turn it Blue. Here's my dream map:
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