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Survey USAAdded: 11/4/08
Survey USA
Does Florida 'Early Bird Special' Give Obama So Many Seats in the Restaurant That McCain People Can't Get a Table? 24 hours until votes are counted in Florida, the state's 27 Electoral Votes may be within reach of Barack Obama, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll. Obama leads 3:2 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. McCain leads 3:2 among those who have not yet voted. How big is each group? That depends on how many voters show up on Election Day. In SurveyUSA's stew, the mix is 58% early voters, 42% same-day voters, which, when combined, results in Florida voting Obama 50%, McCain 47% -- inside the margin of sampling error, but enough of an edge for Obama to be favored, clearly. If the number of same-day voters equals the number of early voters, the contest is a tie. If the number of same-day voters exceeds the number of early voters, McCain wins. In the past 10 days, polls in Florida conducted by Quinnipiac University, the Associated Press, Public Policy Polling and now SurveyUSA show Obama ahead in early voting; a poll by the Los Angeles Times shows McCain ahead in early voting; and a poll by the St. Petersburg Times shows the two candidates tied in early voting. How much of a head-start Obama has going into Election Day will be critical to determining who carries the state and, in some scenarios, who wins the White House. 800 adults interviewed 10/31/08 through 11/03/08 yielded 742 registered voters and 691 likely voters. Research sponsored by WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Ft Myers.
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