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Survey USAAdded: 10/7/08
Survey USA
Obama Puts McCain on Defensive in North Carolina: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 10/07/08, four weeks till votes are counted, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama, or possibly does not, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WTVD-TV Raleigh. The contest today stands at McCain 49%, Obama 46%, if black turnout is 20% on Election Day, as SurveyUSA expects and as SurveyUSA herein reports. However, if black turnout increases by 10%, to 22% of the electorate, the world looks different. The contest in North Carolina has tightened since a SurveyUSA poll conducted immediately after the Republican Convention. Today: McCain leads among men, among voters age 50+, among voters who attend religious services regularly, among pro-life voters and in Greater Charlotte. The contest is effectively even among women, voters under 50, in Greater Greensboro and in Southern and Coastal NC. Obama leads among the youngest voters, among lower-income voters, among Independents, among Moderates, and in greater Raleigh. McCain holds 87% of his GOP base. But Obama holds just 75% of Democrats. 100K NC Blacks May Determine the Next President, the Governor of NC, and whether Democrats Have a Filibuster-Proof Senate: Black turnout is key to forecasting not just who gets North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, but also whether the state elects a Democratic Governor and whether the state contributes a critical take-away to the Democratic effort to get to 60 Senators in Washington DC. McCain today leads 2:1 among whites. Obama leads 17:1 among blacks. In SurveyUSA's model, blacks are 20% of the North Carolina electorate. However: If black turnout increases, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, from approximately 750,000 NC black voters to 850,000 NC black voters, it is possible that Obama wins North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, that Kay Hagan defeats Elizabeth Dole in the US Senate contest, and that Beverly Perdue defeats Pat McCrory in the North Carolina Governor's race. See the SurveyDNA™ brand hypothetical data set that gives you an exclusive window into how things change with slightly larger black turnout.
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