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Who gets your vote in 2012?

Barack Obama (BO)	Mike Huckabee (MH)
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Survey USA

Added: 10/22/08

Survey USA
Date: 10/18-20
North Carolina
Added: 10/22/08

Barack Obama	47%
John McCain	47%
Unsure	3%
Other	3%
Source

Once in a generation, 3 top-ticket statewide contests are as closely fought as are this year's North Carolina elections for President, United States Senator and Governor. And less often still, are the results of 2 of those 3 contests as important to the rest of the country as they may turn out to be in North Carolina in 2008.

In the election for President, in a state John McCain must hold if the GOP is to keep the White House, it's McCain 47%, Obama 47%. An Obama win in North Carolina may ensure an electoral college victory for the Democrats in 2008. In the election for US Senator, in a state that could decide whether the Democrats achieve a filibuster-proof "super-majority" in the next Congress, incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan are effectively tied, 46% Hagan, 45% Dole. And in the election for the open seat of Governor of North Carolina, Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Beverly Perdue are also inside of SurveyUSA's margin of sampling error, 46% McCrory, 43% Perdue.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll two weeks ago: McCain is down 2 points, Obama is up 1; Dole is up 1, Hagan is up 3, Libertarian Chris Cole is down 2; McCrory is flat, Perdue is down 2, but Libertarian Mike Munger is up 3. In the presidential race, most demographic sub-groups are stable, but there is movement among the less affluent to Obama and among the more affluent to McCain. In the Senate race, the contest is in single digits in greater Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro, with McCain up by double digits only in the less densely populated Southern and Coastal parts of the state. In the Governor contest, McCrory has lost striking ground to the Libertarian Munger among men and among the less affluent.

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