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Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008
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Democrat Polls
WFAA / Belo Tracking Poll
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads 68% to 26% among Hispanics -- a 42-point gap with a group that comprises 24% of the likely voters in our sample. Barack Obama leads 79%-8% among African Americans -- a 71-point gap with a group that comprises 22% of the likely voters in our sample. Both of these groups have the potential to turn out at a higher proportion BELO Texas Tracking Poll 2 of the electorate, as these are conservative estimates based on historical turnout measures.
McClatchy/MSNBC/Ft. Worth Star Telegram Poll conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Research
Quote: Men: Obama 54%, Clinton 37%. Women: Clinton 51%, Obama 40%. Whites: Clinton 53%, Obama 38%. Blacks: Obama 86%, Clinton 6%. Hispanics: Clinton 62%, Obama 30%.
Reuters/C SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby tracking poll
Quote: Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads slightly among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, and also leads by 7% among white voters there.
Belo Texas Tracking Poll conducted by Public Strategies Inc
Quote: What was a 29-point gap in favor of Hillary Clinton among Hispanics yesterday (61%- 32%) has climbed to a 40-point gap for Clinton (67%-27%) after our latest night of interviewing. This is the first good news we�ve seen for Hillary Clinton in the past few days, as there were indications that Barack Obama was beginning to make inroads with Hispanics.
Reuters/C SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby tracking poll
Quote: Clinton leads by a scant one percent among Texas women, but the race is also close among Texas men, where Obama leads by just 5%, much less than in some earlier states in this epic Democratic Party battle. As has been the case elsewhere, Clinton leads among older voters, but Obama leads big among younger Texas Democrats. Clinton had a big day Friday in the Zogby call center, leading Obama by double-digits in the Texas survey. She retains a significant lead among Hispanic voters there, a key demographic in the Democratic primary.
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics Poll
Quote: I�m going to read you a list of qualities many people think are important in presidential candidates. Thinking specifically about your vote in the primary, which ONE quality mattered most in deciding who you are supporting over the other candidate in the Democratic primary... (ROTATE) (IF DON�T KNOW: If you had to choose one, which would you say?) 1. Can bring about change 36% 2. Has the right experience 29 3. Has the best chance to win against the Republican 15 4. Understands average Americans 13 5. (Don�t know/Refused) 7
Insider Advantage / Majority Opinion Research
Quote: Whites: Clinton 53%, Obama 39%. Blacks: Obama 75%, Clinton 15%. Hispanics: Clinton 60%, Obama 29%. Men: Clinton 47%, Obama 43%. Women: Clinton 47%, Obama 44%.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Obama leads by sixteen points among men, but trails by nine among women. Clinton�s lead among Hispanic voters is down to seven percentage points.
Reuters/C Span/Houston Chronicle/Zogby Poll
Quote: Obama has built a six-point lead over Clinton in Texas, largely on the strength of support from what has come to be his base � younger voters and men. Evidence of his persuasive powers comes from the fact that most of those who have most recently decided for whom to support, while Clinton won more support from early deciders.
American Research Group
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 48% to 46% and Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 64% to 32%. Obama leads Clinton among men 60% to 32% (45% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among women 53% to 44%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 54% to 41% (52% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 86% to 8% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 55% to 41% (26% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads among voters under 50 60% to 35% (60% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among voters over 50 58% to 37%. Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among early voters (21% of likely Democratic primary voters), while Obama leads 51% to 43% among in-person voters.
Public Strategies
Quote: In the primaries that have taken place to date, Clinton has won the Anglo and Hispanic vote, while Barack Obama has won the African American vote by large margins. When it comes to the racial/ethnic groups in Texas, Obama is doing better with African Americans than Clinton is doing with Hispanics and, conversely, he is having more success cutting into her support with Hispanics than she is in cutting into his support among African Americans. This has been a consistent pattern throughout the primaries, but it is critically important in Texas given the battle for delegates by State Senate district and the margins a candidate must achieve in order to win the majority of delegates in those districts.
Public Strategies
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads 59%-34% among those with a high school education or less, while Barack Obama leads 49%-42% among those with some college and 49%-41% among college graduates.
Constituent Dynamics
Quote: The race for the Democratic nomination is too close to call. The large percentage of "undecided" voters give even more weight to the CNN debates Thursday evening. As Senators Clinton and Obama both tour Texas, they will be reaching out to the undecideds to close the gap.
Public Strategies
Quote: We see many of the same trends in Texas that we�ve seen in earlier primary contests this year.
Public Policy Polling
Quote: Whites: Obama 51%, Clinton 44%. Blacks: Obama 73%, Clinton 27%. Hispanics: Clinton 68%, Obama 27%.
Insider Advantage
Quote: Whites: Clinton 51%, Obama 41%. Blacks: Obama 70%, Clinton 25%. Hispanics: Clinton 51%, Obama 40%. Clinton not performing any better among hispanics than she is with likely white voters.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Last week, Clinton led Obama by three percentage points. The week before, she had a sixteen-point advantage.
Survey USA
Quote: The 'Ayes' of Texas Are Upon Him: Obama Now Atop Clinton -- In a Democratic Primary in Texas today, 02/25/08, 8 days till votes are counted, Barack Obama moves ever-so-slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton, though at the edge of the margin of sampling error, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. Today, it's Obama 49%, Clinton 45%. Compared to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released one week ago, Obama is up 4 points, Clinton is down 5 points.
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll
Quote: "Obama appears to be picking up support from nearly eight in 10 blacks," Holland said. "Clinton may win roughly two-thirds of the Latino vote. There are likely to be more Latino voters than blacks when Democrats go to the polls on March 4, which should work to Clinton's advantage.
American Research Group
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 44% and Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 71% to 25%. Obama leads Clinton among men 59% to 30% (46% of likely Democratic primary voters, and Clinton leads Obama among women 53% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 52% to 40% (52% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 83% to 9% (23% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 50% to 40% (24% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Decision Analyst
Quote: �As the second most populous state, Texas� delegate count is large, and an Obama win of the magnitude indicated by our survey would most likely propel Obama to the Democratic nomination,� according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. �It is still two weeks to the March 4 election, and many things can happen, but as of today, Obama has a commanding lead.�
ABC News/Washington Post Poll
Quote: Hispanics are key in Texas; they favor Clinton by 59-36 percent, about the same as the average in exit polls across all primaries to date (61-35 percent). By contrast, it�s a much closer 50-46 percent contest among whites in Texas, while African-Americans there are favoring Obama by a 4-1 margin, 76-18 percent. That, too, resembles the outcome in all primaries to date (79-17 percent for Obama among blacks), but it�s lower than some of his high-water marks, including his 91 percent support from blacks in Wisconsin.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Clinton leads among White voters and Latino voters while trailing badly among African-Americans. Clinton leads by big margins among those 65 and older while Obama does better among voters under 65. Clinton leads among Democrats while Obama leads among Independent voters likely to take part in the Primary.
IVR Polls
Quote: Anyone who claims to know what Democratic turnout will be is lying, but analysis of earlier contests indicates many new primary voters resulting in higher proportions of women, African-American and younger voters. My previous polling has relied on historical turnout models and a sample of voters with past primary voting history. That worked fine when it was assumed that Texas would vote long after the nominations were effectively decided. For this round of polling, I have made several modifications. First, I have added general election voters who haven't voted in past primaries to the sample. I have added an oversample of young voters, not filtered by voting history. I have also added an oversample for certain areas with a high percentage of African-Americans, but historically low primary turnout. Finally, I have increased weightings for young voters and African-American voters. Those increased weightings also slightly boosted female turnout, so I did not specifically modify that weighting.
Survey USA
Quote: Depending on Hispanic Turnout, Clinton is Either Slightly Ahead, or Not so Slightly Ahead, in Texas Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Texas today, 02/18/08, 15 days to the vote, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. BUT: there is "give" in these numbers that must be mentioned in the same breath. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton leads 2:1. SurveyUSA estimates that Hispanics make-up 32% of Democratic primary voters in a Primary today. If Hispanics vote in larger numbers, Clinton's lead is larger than the 5 points shown here. If Hispanics vote in smaller numbers, Obama runs stronger than these numbers show. Among white voters, Clinton leads by 12. Among black voters, Obama leads by 57. Race Gap is 69 points. Among males, Obama leads by 20. Among females, Clinton leads by 27. Gender Gap is 47 points. Among registered Democrats, Clinton up 14. Among Independents, Obama up 28. Among voters under age 50, Obama by 6. Among Voters 50+, Clinton by 17. Age Gap is 23 points. Clinton ahead in South Texas and West Texas. Obama and Clinton within the margin of sampling error in North Texas, East Texas, and Central Texas.
CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
Quote: "One reason the race appears to be tight is that Texas Democrats are having a hard time choosing between two attractive options," says CNN polling director Keating Holland.
American Research Group
Quote: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Overall, 78% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 67% say the same about Obama. Among voters who are currently undecided, 59% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 48% offer a positive assessment of Obama.
Texas Credit Union League
Republican Polls
WFAA / Belo Tracking Poll
Quote: John McCain maintains a solid lead over Mike Huckabee (56%-31%) among likely Republican primary voters, while Ron Paul rounds out the candidates with 6% of the vote.
Reuters/C SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby tracking poll
Quote: Among mainline conservatives in Texas, McCain led Huckabee by a 57% to 36%, but among those Texans who consider themselves �very conservative,� Huckabee leads, 57% to 36%. McCain leads 71% to 16% among GOP moderates.
Belo Texas Tracking Poll conducted by Public Strategies Inc
Quote: McCain leads among traditional Republican voters (63%-26%) and 55%-27% among Independents.
Reuters/C SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby tracking poll
Quote: McCain has commanding leads in each state, and has focused most of his fire on the Democrats instead of on Republican opponents. He has successfully reduced the resistance among the conservative base to about 20%, down from about one-third of the GOP electorate in recent states. In Ohio, he leads 58% to 23% for Arkansas� Mike Huckabee, and in Texas, his edge is 54%-31%. Among Texas conservatives, McCain leads 59% to 28% over Huckabee.
Reuters/C Span/Houston Chronicle/Zogby Poll
Quote: Republicans appear to have begun the process of falling into line behind Arizona Sen. John McCain, as he has built monumental leads in both Ohio and Texas. In Texas, he leads 53% to 27% over Arkansas� Mike Huckabee, with firebrand Ron Paul pulling 11% in his home state.
American Research Group
Quote: John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 64% to 24% among self-described Republicans. Among self-described independents and Democrats, McCain is at 55%, Huckabee is at 20%, and Ron Paul is at 19%. Among men (55% of likely Republican primary voters), McCain leads Huckabee 66% to 18%. Among women, McCain leads Huckabee 56% to 29%.
Public Strategies
Quote: McCain continues to lead Huckabee among traditional Republican voters (63%-26%) and 55%-27% among Independents. McCain currently wins a majority of evangelical voters with 51% to Huckabee�s 42%.
Public Strategies
Quote: McCain continues to lead Huckabee among traditional Republican voters (66%-25%) and 56%-27% among Independents.
Constituent Dynamics
Quote: The economy is at the top of the list for supporters of Clinton, McCain and Paul. Immigration tops the list for supporters of Huckabee and Affecting Change in Washington is the top reason voters support Obama.
Public Strategies
Quote: We also asked voters which candidate would do a better job handling certain issues:
Public Policy Polling
Quote: �If he can�t win southern states like Texas, this is the end of the line for Mike Huckabee,� said Debnam. �It�s really hard to see where there�s room for him to turn this around.�
Survey USA
Quote: TX GOP Primary is No Longer Competitive; McCain Gaining In Huckabee's Key Demo's: John McCain defeats Mike Huckabee in a Republican Primary in Texas today, 56% to 32%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas and KRLD-AM radio. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll one week ago, McCain is up 6 points, from 50% to 56%, Huckabee is down 5 points, from 37% to 32%. McCain had led by 13, now by 24. Huckabee's support is eroding among his key constituencies: Among Pro-Life voters, among those who attend religious services regularly, and among Conservatives, he is losing ground to McCain. 2,000 state of TX adults were interviewed 02/23/08 through 02/25/08. Of them, 1,780 were registered to vote. Of them, 484 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already voted, or as being likely to vote on or before the 03/04/08 Republican Primary. 19% of respondents have already voted. Among those who have already voted, McCain leads by 29 points.
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll
Quote: McCain is the overwhelming front-runner in the fight for the GOP presidential nomination and party leaders have rallied around the candidate in an attempt for party unity. Regardless, Huckabee and Paul remain in the race for now. There are 137 Republican delegates at stake in Texas.
American Research Group
Quote: John McCain is at 46% among self-described Republicans and Mike Huckabee is at 44%. Among self-described independents and Democrats, McCain is at 51%, Huckabee is at 21%, and Ron Paul is at 19%. Among men (54% of likely Republican primary voters), it is McCain 43% and Huckabee 41%. Among women, McCain leads Huckabee 48% to 40%.
Decision Analyst
Quote: The issues of greatest importance to those who will vote in the Republican Primary are very different from the Democratic voters. The key Republican issues: protecting the U.S. from illegal immigration (39%); fighting terrorism (31%); making the economy stronger and better (29%); character (honesty, ethics, and integrity of candidate) (27%); leadership (ability to manage government, work with world leaders, get things done) (19%).
IVR Polls
Quote: McCain does better among Republican general election voters than he does with past GOP primary voters. Earlier polls long before his revival gave him reasonable numbers when primary voters were hardly considering him. So with momentum and a looser screen, McCain moves well ahead of Huckabee. I only named McCain, Huckabee and Paul this time, along with 'other' and 'undecided.' McCain 54% (+11), Huckabee 29% (-4), Paul 8% (-1), Other 3%(0), Undecided 6% (-4). Interesting that 'other' at 3% matches Keyes' 3% from last time. Not much more to say about this race, unless the recent accusations against McCain get some traction.
Survey USA
Quote: McCain Appears to Have Huckabee Out-Flanked in Texas GOP Primary: In a Republican Primary in Texas today, 02/18/08, 15 days to the vote, John McCain defeats Mike Huckabee, if John McCain supporters do in fact turn-out to vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. Today, it's McCain 50%, Huckabee 37%, Ron Paul 7%. McCain leads among the groups you would expect, but McCain also leads Huckabee among groups that Huckabee carried in Virginia, and that Huckabee would have to carry in Texas in order to have a chance for a symbolic upset here. For example: among Pro-Life voters, McCain, not Huckabee, leads. Among Conservatives, McCain leads. Among those who attend religious services regularly, McCain leads. Only among voters focused on Immigration, and among the youngest voters, does Huckabee lead. Among women, McCain and Huckabee tie. Because McCain is almost certain to be the Republican nominee, it is difficult to estimate how motivated his supporters will be to turn-out on Primary Day. Because Texas's 140 convention delegates are awarded proportionally, not Winner-Take-All, the actual size of McCain's showing, relative to Huckabee, is meaningful.
CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
Quote: "It looks like McCain has made some inroads with conservative Republicans," Holland said.
American Research Group
Quote: John McCain is at 41% among self-described Republicans and Mike Huckabee is at 40%. Among self-described independents and Democrats, McCain is at 49%, Ron Paul is at 23%, and Huckabee is at 17%. Huckabee and McCain are tied at 36% each among men (53% of likely Republican primary voters) and McCain leads Huckabee among women 48% to 37%.
Rasmussen Reports
Quote: Huckabee leads 45% to 38% among voters who consider immigration to be the top issue. This topic has been a sore subject between McCain and conservatives throughout the campaign. It is therefore interesting to note that voters who view immigration as the top issue strongly prefer McCain over both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in recent state polling (state general election polls have been released in recent days for New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada and Missouri). More state data will be released by Rasmussen Reports this weekend.
Texas Credit Union League
IVR Polls (IVRPolls.com)
Quote: Last week, Romney was just ahead of John McCain, 30 to 29, with Mike Huckabee following at 20. Ron Paul and Alan Keyes were in single digits. Huckabee did best among voters under 40, while McCain did best with voters over 60. Romney's support was fairly even through the different ages.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Texas polls.
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