The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp. A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he's favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton's uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August. In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.
In February, Democrats and Democratic leaners by 33 points said Obama had a better shot at beating Republican John McCain in November. Clinton is now seen as the stronger candidate by 5 points.
"That's a huge issue; I mean, John McCain is not going to be a pushover," says Ed Cote, an uncommitted superdelegate from Washington state. The Wright firestorm is "worrisome because it's created a lot of footage for people to make hit ads � ammunition for the Republicans."
Obama acknowledged Sunday that Wright's recent remarks � namely the pastor's suggestions that U.S. actions had invited the Sept. 11 attacks and that the American government could have been behind the spread of AIDS in urban areas � had been an unwelcome distraction in the days leading up to yet another critical set of contests.
"We ended up spending a lot of time talking about Rev. Wright instead of talking about gas prices and food prices and the situation in Iraq," Obama said on NBC's Meet the Press. "Hopefully, we've been able to put it behind us."
On ABC's This Week, Clinton said the contest would continue through the final June 3 primaries. Then, "people can look at all of the various factors and decide who would be the strongest candidate."
The furor over Wright won't necessarily cost Obama the nomination; Obama continues to hold an almost insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. But it hasn't helped his efforts to gain endorsements from uncommitted party leaders known as superdelegates to get the 2,025 total delegates he needs.
The controversy also could be a hurdle if Obama wins the nomination and then tries to draw support from independent and GOP voters in November.
"It will be a continuing problem," predicts Joe Trippi, a strategist for John Edwards' presidential bid who isn't affiliated with one of the current campaigns. "This won't be the last time it's raised."
