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Primaries 2012: Primary Polls

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Who gets your vote in 2012?

Barack Obama (BO)	Mike Huckabee (MH)
Email:

Democrat Polls

American Research Group
Date: 2/17-18
Wisconsin
Added: 2/19/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 59% to 37% (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, it is Clinton 47% and Obama 46%. In the February 15-16 survey, Obama was leading Clinton among men 48% to 42% and Clinton was leading Obama among women 55% to 39%.
Obama leads Clinton among white voters 49% to 45% (88% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 86% to 9% (8% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Obama leads Clinton among Latino voters 61% to 33%.
27% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 15% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. White voters age 45 to 64 have switched from Clinton to Obama, although women in this age group are less apt to say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton when compared to the men in the age group.
During the course of the campaign in Wisconsin, Clinton lost 14 percentage points of strong support (close to a 25% drop) and Obama gained 18 percentage points of strong support (over a 64% increase). Also, Clinton's strong negative increased by 10 percentage points while Obama's increased by 6 percentage points. That is political momentum for Obama.
The shifts began as white, working class men between the ages of 45 and 64 (and fitting the demographic profile of an Edwards voter in the early states) moved from saying Obama was acceptable to them, but not a favorite candidate, to saying they preferred Obama over the other candidates running. At the same time, these men began to also say that they would never vote for Clinton in the primary once Obama became their preferred candidate.
The sharp drop for Clinton came, however, when white, working class women between the ages of 45 and 64 switched from Clinton to Obama in the final days of the campaign. They know and like both candidates and they could switch back to Clinton (as women in this demographic group did in New Hampshire), but Obama's gains and Clinton's losses give the edge to Obama. That is the benefit of political momentum. --Dick Bennett

Barack Obama	52%
Hillary Clinton	42%
Unsure	5%
Other	1%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 2/16-17
Wisconsin
Added: 2/18/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

�Our poll showed that with a standard turnout, Obama would lead Clinton just 47-44,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �But we expect Wisconsin will see the same record levels of turnout from young voters and black voters that Obama has been bringing out in other states. That should propel him to a double digit victory.�

Barack Obama	53%
Hillary Clinton	40%
Unsure	7%
Source

American Research Group
Date: 2/15-16
Wisconsin
Added: 2/18/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 48% to 42% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads Obama among women 55% to 39%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 52% to 40% (89% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 85% to 9% (7% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 50% to 44%.
19% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 13% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 27% of men say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary 20% of men say they would never vote for Obama in the primary.

Hillary Clinton	49%
Barack Obama	43%
Unsure	7%
Other	1%
Source

Research 2000 for WISC TV
Date: 2/13-14
Wisconsin
Added: 2/15/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

A new poll shows Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin, but the lead is within the poll's margin of error and a sizable number of undecided voters could also swing the vote. That poll said Obama leads Clinton 47% to 43%, but that one in four voters may change their mind. Ten percent of voters were undecided.

Barack Obama	47%
Hillary Clinton	42%
Unsure	11%
Source

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 2/13
Wisconsin
Added: 2/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]

Quote:

Nearly one-fourth of the voters say there�s a good chance they might change their mind. Five percent (5%) of those who currently support Obama and Clinton say there�s a good chance they could change their mind before voting.
Clinton leads by ten points among women but trails by twenty-three points among men. Clinton leads among voters over 65 while Obama has the edge among younger voters.
39% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters name the economy as the top voting issue. Twenty-six percent (26%) see the War in Iraq as the highest priority. Obama has a huge lead (61% to 33%) among those who see Iraq as the top issue. Clinton has a narrow edge among other voters.
Obama is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Democratic Voters in Wisconsin, Clinton by 79%.

Barack Obama	47%
Hillary Clinton	43%
Unsure	10%
Source

Strategic Vision
Date: 2/8-10
Wisconsin
Added: 2/13/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is most important, one who represents change or one who has experience? (Democrats only) Change 52% Experience 21% Undecided 27%

Barack Obama	45%
Hillary Clinton	41%
Unsure	14%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 2/11
Wisconsin
Added: 2/13/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

�Our poll shows that if there was standard turnout for the primary, Obama would lead Clinton 46-42,� said Debnam. �But since we believe record numbers of young voters and African Americans will turn out to support him, the weighted result gives Obama a greater 50-39 advantage.�

Barack Obama	50%
Hillary Clinton	39%
Unsure	10%
Source

American Research Group
Date: 2/6-7
Wisconsin
Added: 2/9/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 51% to 43% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads Obama among women 57% to 33%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 52% to 39% (90% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 75% to 19% (6% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 57% to 37%.
17% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 9% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 29% of men and 7% of women say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary. 12% of women and 6% of men say they would never vote for Obama in the primary.

Hillary Clinton	50%
Barack Obama	41%
Unsure	8%
Other	1%
Source

Republican Polls

American Research Group
Date: 2/17-18
Wisconsin
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 50% to 45% among Republicans and McCain leads Huckabee 54% to 38% among independents and Democrats likely to vote in the Republican primary. Huckabee leads McCain among men 53% to 42% (52% of likely Republican primary voters), while McCain leads Huckabee 61% to 33% among women.

John McCain	51%
Mike Huckabee	43%
Ron Paul	3%
Unsure	2%
Other	1%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 2/16-17
Wisconsin
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

Huckabee has closed in on McCain in the final days in recent primaries in places like Virginia, Tennessee, and Georgia. Those states, like Wisconsin, all show a significant number of Republican voters who list moral and family values as their biggest issue when deciding who to vote for President. Huckabee leads that group 70-18 in Wisconsin.
�Four years ago, John Edwards came close to a surprising upset in Wisconsin when the Democratic nomination was all but settled. If the trend toward Huckabee continues, there could be a similar dynamic on the Republican side this year,� said Debnam.

John McCain	50%
Mike Huckabee	39%
Ron Paul	6%
Unsure	5%
Source

American Research Group
Date: 2/15-16
Wisconsin
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 47% to 44% among Republicans and McCain leads Huckabee 45% to 37% among independents and Democrats likely to vote in the Republican primary. Huckabee leads McCain among men 53% to 35% (52% of likely Republican primary voters), while McCain leads Huckabee 58% to 31% among women.

John McCain	46%
Mike Huckabee	42%
Ron Paul	4%
Unsure	7%
Other	1%
Source

Research 2000 for WISC TV
Date: 2/13-14
Wisconsin
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

Among Republicans, John McCain led 48% to Mike Huckabee's 32%. Ron Paul placed third with 7%, and 13% said they were undecided.

John McCain	48%
Mike Huckabee	32%
Ron Paul	7%
Unsure	13%
Source

Strategic Vision
Date: 2/8-10
Wisconsin
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

How important is it for the Republican presidential candidate to be a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan, very important, somewhat important, not very important, not important, or undecided? (Republicans only) Very Important 48% Somewhat Important 18% Not Very Important 8% Not Important 11% Undecided 15%

John McCain	45%
Mike Huckabee	27%
Ron Paul	7%
Unsure	21%
Source

Public Policy Polling
Date: 2/11
Wisconsin
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

�Mike Huckabee did well on Super Tuesday with a lot of southern states voting, but he�s going to have a tough time in states like Wisconsin,� Debnam said. �McCain has strong leads with pretty much every key Republican demographic in the state.�

John McCain	53%
Mike Huckabee	32%
Ron Paul	7%
Unsure	9%
Source

American Research Group
Date: 2/6-7
Wisconsin
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

With Mitt Romney's name included in the ballot question, John McCain leads Romney 47% to 31% among Republicans and 61% to 25% among independents and Democrats likely to vote in the Republican primary. McCain leads Romney among men 45% to 37% and McCain leads Romney 57% to 21% among women.