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Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 registered voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted February 16-20, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?

Approve 56%
Disapprove 38%
Undecided 6%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?

Approve 55%
Disapprove 39%
Undecided 6%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of Iraq?

Approve 57%
Disapprove 36%
Undecided 7%

4. Do you support or oppose President Bush's Social Security reform?

Support 42%
Oppose 42%
Undecided 16%

5. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jeb Bush's job performance?

Approve 62%
Disapprove 31%
Undecided 7%

6. Would you like to see Governor Jeb Bush run for President in 2008?

Yes 57%
No 38%
Undecided 5%

7. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Jeb Bush included. Republicans only)

Jeb Bush 34%
Rudy Guliani 27%
John McCain 16%
Bill Frist 4%
George Pataki 2%
George Allen 1%
Mitt Romney 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Bill Owens 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Undecided 12%

8. If Jeb Bush were not to run for President in 2008, who would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)

Rudy Guliani 30%
John McCain 24%
Bill Frist 7%
George Pataki 2%
Mitt Romney 2%
George Allen 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Bill Owens 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Undecided 31%

9. Who is your first choice for the Democratic nomination in 2008? (Democrats only)

Hillary Clinton 30%
Al Gore 20%
John Kerry 17%
John Edwards 5%
Wesley Clark 3%
Joseph Biden 2%
Bill Richardson 2%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 17%

10. Do you approve or disapprove of Lt. Governor Toni Jennings' job performance?

Approve 50%
Disapprove 23%
Undecided 27%

11. Do you approve or disapprove of Attorney General Charlie Crist's job performance?

Approve 53%
Disapprove 36%
Undecided 11%

12. Do you approve or disapprove of Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher's job performance?

Approve 52%
Disapprove 32%
Undecided 16%

13. Do you approve or disapprove of Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson's job performance?

Approve 49%
Disapprove 20%
Undecided 31%

14. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson's job performance?

Approve 45%
Disapprove 39%
Undecided 16%

15. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mel Martinez's job performance?

Approve 50%
Disapprove 35%
Undecided 15%

16. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006? (Republicans only)

Charlie Crist 35%
Tom Gallagher 20%
Toni Jennings 13%
Undecided 32%

17. Who is your first choice for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2006? (Democrats only)

Betty Castor 31%
Lawton "Bud" Chiles 14%
Congressman Jim Davis 8%
Democratic Chairman Scott Maddox 7%
State Senator Rod Smith 5%
Undecided 35%

18. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Betty Castor, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Charlie Crist 39%
Betty Castor 34%
Undecided 27%

19. If the election for Governor ere between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Betty Castor, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Tom Gallagher 37%
Betty Castor 35%
Undecided 28%

20. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Betty Castor, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Toni Jennings 30%
Betty Castor 33%
Undecided 37%

21. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Lawton "Bud" Chiles, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Charlie Crist 40%
Lawton "Bud" Chiles 30%
Undecided 30%

22. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Lawton "Bud" Chiles, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Tom Gallagher 39%
Lawton "Bud" Chiles 28%
Undecided 33%

23. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Lawton "Bud" Chiles, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Toni Jennings 30%
Lawton "Bud" Chiles 27%
Undecided 43%

24. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Charlie Crist 44%
Jim Davis 32%
Undecided 24%

25. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Tom Gallagher 43%
Jim Davis 30%
Undecided 27%

26. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Toni Jennings 39%
Jim Davis 30%
Undecided 31%

27. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Scott Maddox, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Charlie Crist 45%
Scott Maddox 32%
Undecided 23%

28. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Scott Maddox, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Tom Gallagher 46%
Scott Maddox 31%
Undecided 23%

29. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Scott Maddox, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Toni Jennings 38%
Scott Maddox 29%
Undecided 33%

30. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Charlie Crist 45%
Rod Smith 28%
Undecided 27%

31. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Tom Gallagher 46%
Rod Smith 29%
Undecided 25%

32. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?

Toni Jennings 40%
Rod Smith 29%
Undecided 31%

33. Who would you support for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006? (Republicans only)

Katherine Harris 38%
Charlie Crist 19%
Tom Gallagher 13%
Toni Jennings 8%
Bill McCollum 6%
Mark Foley 4%
David Weldon 2%
Daniel Webster 1%
Undecided 9%

34. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Katherine Harris, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 46%
Katherine Harris 39%
Undecided 15%

35. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Charlie Crist, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 45%
Charles Crist 42%
Undecided 13%

36. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tom Gallagher, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 44%
Tom Gallagher 42%
Undecided 14%

37. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Toni Jennings, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 47%
Toni Jennings 40%
Undecided 13%

38. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Bill McCollum, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 48%
Bill McCollum 35%
Undecided 17%

39. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Mark Foley, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 45%
Mark Foley 37%
Undecided 18%

40. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or David Weldon, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 47%
David Weldon 34%
Undecided 19%

41. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Daniel Webster, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 48%
Daniel Webster 30%
Undecided 22%

42. Do you think Florida is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Right 56%
Wrong 38%
Undecided 6%

43. Would you favor a state constitutional ban on same-sex marriages?

Yes 54%
No 34%
Undecided 12%

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Predicted Electoral Math

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Odds of Winning

tab Obama -230, McCain +160

Senate Races 2008

AL: Sessions vs Figures
AK: Stevens vs Begich
CO: Schaffer vs Udall
IA: Reed vs Harkin
ID: Risch vs Larocco
KS: Roberts vs Slattery
KY: McConnell vs Lunsford
LA: Kennedy vs Landrieu
MA: Beatty vs Kerry
MI: Hoogendyk vs Levin
ME: Collins vs Allen
MN: Coleman vs Franken
MS: Cochran vs Fleming
MS: Wicker vs Musgrove
NC: Dole vs Hagan
NE: Johanns vs Kleeb
NH: Sununu vs Shaheen
NJ: Zimmer vs Lautenberg
NM: Pearce vs Udall
OK: Inhofe vs Rice
OR: Smith vs Merkley
SD: Dykstra vs Johnson
TX: Cornyn vs Noriega

VA: Gilmore vs Warner

 

Polls We Have Conducted...

tab CA: Bush, Congress, Arnold
tab CA: Issues
tab CA: Prop 98 & 99
tab CA: Impact of Gender & Boss
tab CA: General Election

Useful History

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Ph.D. Math; Berkeley
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Chinese: 奥巴马, 麦凯恩.
City Demographics: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

One of the biggest perturbations of Random Digit Dialing polling (RDD) is the accidental calling of business phone numbers. So we track these numbers and report to you the prefixes within each area code most likely to be reserved for business use.

Business Listings By Area Code: 201, 202, 203, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 225, 228, 229, 239, 240, 248, 250, 251, 252, 253, 256, 260, 262, 267, 269, 270, 281, 283, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 307, 309, 310, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 323, 325, 330, 334, 336, 337, 347, 352, 353, 360, 361, 386, 401, 402, 404, 405, 406, 407, 408, 409, 410, 412, 413, 414, 415, 417, 419, 423, 425, 432, 434, 435, 440, 443, 469, 478, 479, 480, 484, 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, 507, 508, 509, 510, 512, 513, 515, 516, 517, 518, 520, 530, 540, 541, 559, 561, 562, 563, 570, 571, 573, 574, 580, 585, 586, 601, 602, 603, 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 612, 614, 615, 616, 617, 619, 623, 626, 630, 631, 636, 641, 646, 650, 651, 660, 661, 662, 678, 682, 701, 702, 703, 704, 706, 707, 708, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 724, 727, 731, 732, 734, 740, 757, 760, 763, 765, 770, 773, 774, 775, 781, 785, 786, 787, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 808, 810, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 830, 831, 832, 843, 845, 847, 850, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 863, 864, 865, 866, 870, 877, 888, 901, 903, 904, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 925, 928, 931, 936, 937, 940, 941, 949, 951, 952, 954, 956, 970, 971, 972, 973, 978, 979, 980, 985, 989.

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