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Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted February 17-19, 2006. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 40%
Disapprove 49%
Undecided 11%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 39%
Disapprove 49%
Undecided 12%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of Iraq?
Approve 44%
Disapprove 46%
Undecided 10%

4. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism?
Approve 51%
Disapprove 42%
Undecided 7%

5. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans Only)
Yes 33%
No 45%
Undecided 22%

6. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jeb Bush's job performance?
Approve 57%
Disapprove 33%
Undecided 10%

7. Would you like to see Governor Jeb Bush run for President in 2008?
Yes 18%
No 65%
Undecided 17%

8. Would you like to see Governor Jeb Bush as a Vice Presidential Candidate in 2008?
Yes 30%
No 45%
Undecided 25%

9. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Jeb Bush included, Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 35%
John McCain 26%
Jeb Bush 10%
Newt Gingrich 7%
George Allen 5%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
Mitt Romney 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
George Pataki 1%
Undecided 11%

10. If Jeb Bush were not to run for President in 2008, whom would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 38%
John McCain 28%
Newt Gingrich 9%
George Allen 8%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Mitt Romney 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 11%

11. Would you like to see Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice run for President in 2008? (Republicans only)
Yes 47%
No 40%
Undecided 13%

12. If Condoleeza Rice were to run for President in 2008, who would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 35%
John McCain 20%
Condoleeza Rice 15%
Newt Gingrich 7%
George Allen 5%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Mitt Romney 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%

13. Who is your first choice for the Democratic nomination in 2008? (Democrats only)
Hillary Clinton 33%
Al Gore 15%
John Edwards 10%
Mark Warner 7%
John Kerry 7%
Wesley Clark 5%
Russ Feingold 4%
Joseph Biden 2%
Bill Richardson 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 12%

14. Would you like to see the United States Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade?
Yes 36%
No 56%
Undecided 8%

15. Do you expect another terrorist attack in the next six months?
Yes 65%
No 7%
Undecided 28%

16. Do you approve or disapprove of Lt. Governor Toni Jennings' job performance?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 23%
Undecided 29%

17. Do you approve or disapprove of Attorney General Charlie Crist's job performance?
Approve 55%
Disapprove 36%
Undecided 9%

18. Do you approve or disapprove of Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher's job performance?
Approve 52%
Disapprove 34%
Undecided 14%

19. Do you approve or disapprove of Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson's job performance?
Approve 43%
Disapprove 20%
Undecided 37%

20. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson's job performance?
Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Undecided 13%

21. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mel Martinez's job performance?
Approve 38%
Disapprove 35%
Undecided 27%

22. If the election for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006 were held today between Attorney General Charlie Crist and Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, whom would you vote for? (Republicans only)
Charlie Crist 46%
Tom Gallagher 37%
Undecided 17%

23. Are you satisfied with the two Republican candidates running for Governor or would you prefer to see someone else run? (Republicans only)
Satisfied 60%
Prefer another candidate 16%
Undecided 24%

24. If the election for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2006 were held today between Congressman Jim Davis and State Senator Rod Smith, whom would you vote for? (Democrats only)
Jim Davis 38%
Rod Smith 20%
Undecided 42%

25. Are you satisfied with the two Democratic candidates running for Governor or would you prefer to see someone else run? (Democrats only)
Satisfied 38%
Prefer another candidate 50%
Undecided 12%

26. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 46%
Jim Davis 39%
Undecided 15%

27. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Tom Gallagher 45%
Jim Davis 38%
| Undecided 17%

28. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 47%
Rod Smith 36%
Undecided 17%

29. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Tom Gallagher 46%
Rod Smith 35%
Undecided 19%

30. If the election for Chief Financial Officer were held today between State Senate President Tom Lee and State Representative Randy Johnson, whom would you support? (Republicans only)
Tom Lee 25%
Randy Johnson 22%
Undecided 53%

31. If the election for Attorney General were held today between former Congressman Bill McCollum, State Representative Joe Negron, State Representative Everett Rice, and State Senator Burt Saunders, whom would you support? (Republicans only)
Bill McCollum 40%
Joe Negron 15%
Everett Rice 9%
Burt Saunders 6%
Undecided 30%

32. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Republicans only)
Katherine Harris 46%
Mark Foley 12%
Allan Bense 6%
Ginny Brown-Waite 4%
Dave Weldon 3%
Daniel Webster 1%
Undecided 28%

33. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Katherine Harris not included, Republicans only)
Mark Foley 24%
Allan Bense 13%
Ginny Brown-Waite 8%
Dave Weldon 7%
Daniel Webster 4%
Undecided 44%

34. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Katherine Harris?
Favorable 35%
Unfavorable 45%
Undecided 20%

35. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Nelson?
Favorable 42%
Unfavorable 15%
Undecided 43%

36. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Katherine Harris, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 49%
Katherine Harris 34%
Undecided 17%

37. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Mark Foley, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 48%
Mark Foley 40%
Undecided 12%

38. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Allan Bense, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 47%
Allan Bense 35%
Undecided 18%

39. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Ginny Brown-Waite, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 47%
Ginny Brown-Waite 39%
Undecided 14%

40. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Dave Weldon, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 48%
Dave Weldon 38%
Undecided 14%

41. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Daniel Webster, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 49%
Daniel Webster 34%
Undecided 17%

42. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Jeb Bush, the Republican?
Jeb Bush 52%
Bill Nelson 38%
Undecided 10%

43. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Charlie Crist, the Republican?
Charlie Crist 46%
Bill Nelson 45%
Undecided 9%

44. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tom Gallagher, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 45%
Tom Gallagher 43%
Undecided 12%

45. Do you think Florida is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right 46%
Wrong 40%
Undecided 14%

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Predicted Electoral Math

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Odds of Winning

tab Obama -230, McCain +160

Senate Races 2008

AL: Sessions vs Figures
AK: Stevens vs Begich
CO: Schaffer vs Udall
IA: Reed vs Harkin
ID: Risch vs Larocco
KS: Roberts vs Slattery
KY: McConnell vs Lunsford
LA: Kennedy vs Landrieu
MA: Beatty vs Kerry
MI: Hoogendyk vs Levin
ME: Collins vs Allen
MN: Coleman vs Franken
MS: Cochran vs Fleming
MS: Wicker vs Musgrove
NC: Dole vs Hagan
NE: Johanns vs Kleeb
NH: Sununu vs Shaheen
NJ: Zimmer vs Lautenberg
NM: Pearce vs Udall
OK: Inhofe vs Rice
OR: Smith vs Merkley
SD: Dykstra vs Johnson
TX: Cornyn vs Noriega

VA: Gilmore vs Warner

 

Polls We Have Conducted...

tab CA: Bush, Congress, Arnold
tab CA: Issues
tab CA: Prop 98 & 99
tab CA: Impact of Gender & Boss
tab CA: General Election

Useful History

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M.S. Engineering; UCLA

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Ph.D. Math; Berkeley
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High School Intern from Michigan

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City Demographics: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

One of the biggest perturbations of Random Digit Dialing polling (RDD) is the accidental calling of business phone numbers. So we track these numbers and report to you the prefixes within each area code most likely to be reserved for business use.

Business Listings By Area Code: 201, 202, 203, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 225, 228, 229, 239, 240, 248, 250, 251, 252, 253, 256, 260, 262, 267, 269, 270, 281, 283, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 307, 309, 310, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 323, 325, 330, 334, 336, 337, 347, 352, 353, 360, 361, 386, 401, 402, 404, 405, 406, 407, 408, 409, 410, 412, 413, 414, 415, 417, 419, 423, 425, 432, 434, 435, 440, 443, 469, 478, 479, 480, 484, 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, 507, 508, 509, 510, 512, 513, 515, 516, 517, 518, 520, 530, 540, 541, 559, 561, 562, 563, 570, 571, 573, 574, 580, 585, 586, 601, 602, 603, 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 612, 614, 615, 616, 617, 619, 623, 626, 630, 631, 636, 641, 646, 650, 651, 660, 661, 662, 678, 682, 701, 702, 703, 704, 706, 707, 708, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 724, 727, 731, 732, 734, 740, 757, 760, 763, 765, 770, 773, 774, 775, 781, 785, 786, 787, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 808, 810, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 830, 831, 832, 843, 845, 847, 850, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 863, 864, 865, 866, 870, 877, 888, 901, 903, 904, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 925, 928, 931, 936, 937, 940, 941, 949, 951, 952, 954, 956, 970, 971, 972, 973, 978, 979, 980, 985, 989.

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