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Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted March 24-26, 2006. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 38%
Disapprove 53%
Undecided 9%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 36%
Disapprove 51%
Undecided 13%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of Iraq?
Approve 41%
Disapprove 50%
Undecided 9%

4. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism?
Approve 47%
Disapprove 44%
Undecided 9%

5. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans Only)
Yes 28%
No 50%
Undecided 22%

6. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jeb Bush's job performance?
Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%
Undecided 12%

7. Would you like to see Governor Jeb Bush run for President in 2008?
Yes 13%
No 67%
Undecided 20%

8. Would you like to see Governor Jeb Bush as a Vice Presidential Candidate in 2008?
Yes 27%
No 53%
Undecided 20%

9. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Jeb Bush included, Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 34%
John McCain 25%
Jeb Bush 11%
Newt Gingrich 6%
George Allen 5%
Mitt Romney 3%
Bill Frist 3%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
George Pataki 1%
Undecided 10%

10. If Jeb Bush were not to run for President in 2008, whom would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 37%
John McCain 28%
George Allen 8%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 10%

11. Would you like to see Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice run for President in 2008? (Republicans only)
Yes 48%
No 38%
Undecided 14%

12. If Condoleeza Rice were to run for President in 2008, whom would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 32%
John McCain 22%
Condoleeza Rice 10%
Newt Gingrich 5%
George Allen 5%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 17%

13. Who is your first choice for the Democratic nomination in 2008? (Democrats only)
Hillary Clinton 35%
Al Gore 18%
John Edwards 12%
Mark Warner 6%
John Kerry 6%
Russ Feingold 4%
Wesley Clark 2%
Joseph Biden 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 11%

14. Would you like to see the United States Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade?
Yes 34%
No 56%
Undecided 10%

15. Do you expect another terrorist attack in the next six months?
Yes 69%
No 10%
Undecided 21%

16. Do you approve or disapprove of Lt. Governor Toni Jennings' job performance?
Approve 49%
Disapprove 27%
Undecided 24%

17. Do you approve or disapprove of Attorney General Charlie Crist's job performance?
Approve 53%
Disapprove 33%
Undecided 14%

18. Do you approve or disapprove of Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher's job performance?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 32%
Undecided 20%

19. Do you approve or disapprove of Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson's job performance?
Approve 43%
Disapprove 26%
Undecided 31%

20. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson's job performance?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 39%
Undecided 13%

21. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mel Martinez's job performance?
Approve 39%
Disapprove 35%
Undecided 26%

22. If the election for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006 were held today between Attorney General Charlie Crist and Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, whom would you vote for? (Republicans only)
Charlie Crist 48%
Tom Gallagher 36%
Undecided 16%

23. Are you satisfied with the two Republican candidates running for Governor or would you prefer to see someone else run? (Republicans only)
Satisfied 63%
Prefer another candidate 20%
Undecided 17%

24. If the election for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2006 were held today between Congressman Jim Davis and State Senator Rod Smith, whom would you vote for? (Democrats only)
Jim Davis 41%
Rod Smith 19%
Undecided 40%

25. Are you satisfied with the two Democratic candidates running for Governor or would you prefer to see someone else run? (Democrats only)
Satisfied 43%
Prefer another candidate 46%
Undecided 11%

26. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 47%
Jim Davis 38%
Undecided 15%

27. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Tom Gallagher 46%
Jim Davis 39%
Undecided 15%

28. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Charlie Crist 49%
Rod Smith 35%
Undecided 16%

29. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Rod Smith, the Democrat, whom would you support?
Tom Gallagher 45%
Rod Smith 33%
Undecided 22%

30. If the election for Chief Financial Officer were held today between State Senate President Tom Lee and State Representative Randy Johnson, whom would you support? (Republicans only)
Tom Lee 26%
Randy Johnson 22%
Undecided 52%

31. If the election for Attorney General were held today between former Congressman Bill McCollum, State Representative Joe Negron, State Representative Everett Rice, and State Senator Burt Saunders, whom would you support? (Republicans only)
Bill McCollum 42%
Joe Negron 13%
Everett Rice 6%
Burt Saunders 5%
Undecided 34%

32. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Republicans only)
Katherine Harris 37%
Tommy Franks 30%
Mark Foley 5%
Allan Bense 4%
Tom Lee 4%
Ginny Brown-Waite 3%
Dave Weldon 3%
Daniel Webster 1%
Tom Rooney 1%
Undecided 12%

33. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Republicans only; Franks Excluded)
Katherine Harris 38%
Tom Gallagher 32%
Mark Foley 6%
Allan Bense 3%
Tom Lee 3%
Ginny Brown-Waite 2%
Dave Weldon 1%
Daniel Webster 1%
Tom Rooney 1%
Undecided 13%

34. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Republicans only; Gallagher Excluded)
Katherine Harris 40%
Mark Foley 16%
Allan Bense 7%
Tom Lee 5%
Ginny Brown-Waite 4%
Dave Weldon 3%
Daniel Webster 2%
Tom Rooney 1%
Undecided 22%

35. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Republicans only; Harris Excluded)
Tommy Franks 34%
Mark Foley 20%
Allan Bense 8%
Ginny Brown-Waite 5%
Dave Weldon 4%
Tom Lee 3%
Daniel Webster 2%
Tom Rooney 1%
Undecided 23%

36. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Republicans only; Harris and Franks Excluded)
Tom Gallagher 29%
Mark Foley 22%
Allan Bense 6%
Ginny Brown-Waite 4%
Dave Weldon 3%
Tom Lee 2%
Daniel Webster 1%
Tom Rooney 1%
Undecided 32%

37. If the election for the Republican nomination for United States Senator in 2006 were held today, whom would you support? (Republicans only; Harris, Franks, Gallagher Excluded)
Mark Foley 25%
Allan Bense 10%
Ginny Brown-Waite 5%
Tom Lee 4%
Dave Weldon 3%
Daniel Webster 1%
Tom Rooney 1%
Undecided 51%

38. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Katherine Harris?
Favorable 29%
Unfavorable 52%
Undecided 19%

39. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Nelson?
Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 12%
Undecided 44%

40. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Katherine Harris, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 56%
Katherine Harris 28%
Undecided 16%

41. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tommy Franks, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 46%
Tommy Franks 45%
Undecided 9%

42. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tom Gallagher, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 48%
Tom Gallagher 45%
Undecided 7%

43. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Mark Foley, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 47%
Mark Foley 38%
Undecided 15%

44. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Allan Bense, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 48%
Allan Bense 35%
Undecided 17%

45. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Ginny Brown-Waite, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 48%
Ginny Brown-Waite 38%
Undecided 14%

46. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tom Lee, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 49%
Tom Lee 37%
Undecided 14%

47. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Dave Weldon, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 48%
Dave Weldon 36%
Undecided 16%

48. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Daniel Webster, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 50%
Daniel Webster 33%
Undecided 17%

49. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tom Rooney, the Republican?
Bill Nelson 54%
Tom Rooney 20%
Undecided 26%

50. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Jeb Bush, the Republican?
Jeb Bush 53%
Bill Nelson 38%
Undecided 9%

51. Do you think Florida is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right 44%
Wrong 40%
Undecided 16%

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Predicted Electoral Math

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Odds of Winning

tab Obama -230, McCain +160

Senate Races 2008

AL: Sessions vs Figures
AK: Stevens vs Begich
CO: Schaffer vs Udall
IA: Reed vs Harkin
ID: Risch vs Larocco
KS: Roberts vs Slattery
KY: McConnell vs Lunsford
LA: Kennedy vs Landrieu
MA: Beatty vs Kerry
MI: Hoogendyk vs Levin
ME: Collins vs Allen
MN: Coleman vs Franken
MS: Cochran vs Fleming
MS: Wicker vs Musgrove
NC: Dole vs Hagan
NE: Johanns vs Kleeb
NH: Sununu vs Shaheen
NJ: Zimmer vs Lautenberg
NM: Pearce vs Udall
OK: Inhofe vs Rice
OR: Smith vs Merkley
SD: Dykstra vs Johnson
TX: Cornyn vs Noriega

VA: Gilmore vs Warner

 

Polls We Have Conducted...

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tab CA: Issues
tab CA: Prop 98 & 99
tab CA: Impact of Gender & Boss
tab CA: General Election

Useful History

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M.S. Engineering; UCLA

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Ph.D. Math; Berkeley
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High School Intern from Michigan

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City Demographics: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

One of the biggest perturbations of Random Digit Dialing polling (RDD) is the accidental calling of business phone numbers. So we track these numbers and report to you the prefixes within each area code most likely to be reserved for business use.

Business Listings By Area Code: 201, 202, 203, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 225, 228, 229, 239, 240, 248, 250, 251, 252, 253, 256, 260, 262, 267, 269, 270, 281, 283, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 307, 309, 310, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 323, 325, 330, 334, 336, 337, 347, 352, 353, 360, 361, 386, 401, 402, 404, 405, 406, 407, 408, 409, 410, 412, 413, 414, 415, 417, 419, 423, 425, 432, 434, 435, 440, 443, 469, 478, 479, 480, 484, 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, 507, 508, 509, 510, 512, 513, 515, 516, 517, 518, 520, 530, 540, 541, 559, 561, 562, 563, 570, 571, 573, 574, 580, 585, 586, 601, 602, 603, 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 612, 614, 615, 616, 617, 619, 623, 626, 630, 631, 636, 641, 646, 650, 651, 660, 661, 662, 678, 682, 701, 702, 703, 704, 706, 707, 708, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 724, 727, 731, 732, 734, 740, 757, 760, 763, 765, 770, 773, 774, 775, 781, 785, 786, 787, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 808, 810, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 830, 831, 832, 843, 845, 847, 850, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 863, 864, 865, 866, 870, 877, 888, 901, 903, 904, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 925, 928, 931, 936, 937, 940, 941, 949, 951, 952, 954, 956, 970, 971, 972, 973, 978, 979, 980, 985, 989.

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