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Iran Pre Election Polls Had Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Ahead by 20 Percent

6/16/09

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Tags: Foreign Affairs

From Terror Free Tomorrow (conducted: 5/11-20/09)

34% said they would vote for Ahmadinejad and 14% said Moussavi. 27% were undecided.
68% of Iranians favor their government working with the US to resolve the Iraq war.
62% oppose any peace treaty recognizing Israel and favor all Muslims fighting until there is no state of Israel in the Middle East.

» Commentary by Kris Lazaro (registered Democrat)

The Washington Post reported on Monday that the pre-election poll by Terror Free Tomorrow had Ahmadinejad up by 20%.

Heree is what they had to say about the organization:

Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. The groups' May 11-20 polling consisted of 1,001 interviews across Iran and had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.

Ahmadinejad was ahead by 20% in this poll but there were still 27% of folks undecided. The key question to ask ourselves is why did they proclaim to be undecided? Were they fearful of a backlash if they stated their true desire to vote against Ahmadinejad?

As per the polls from the past, undecided voters tend to vote against the incumbent. This is because they are already very familiar with their current leaders and if they still remain undecided after being so familiar, chances are they will vote for someone else. Someone new. Someone different.

If that is true then this race would be have been much closer than it really was. Otherwise, Ahmadinejad legitimately won the election fair and square.

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