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Margin of Error

Our Calculated Error May Differ from a Pollster's Reported MoE

This can be due to weighting or complex features of the sampling design that required alternative calculations for the standard error. There are also varieties of means of calculating the margin of error, such as the maximum margin of error which is associated with p=50% or as we calculate p as the support of the candidate with the highest percentage in the poll. Since candidates' support will change from poll to poll, the MoE's will change as well. Pollsters may choose to have a standard formula to keep their MoE consistent between polls.

How it is Calculated

The margin of error reported with poll results is what is considered the 95% confidence level range. Meaning a pollster has a 95% confidence that the true measurement lies within the margin of error.

The standard error equation is shown below.

Standard error = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}, where p represent the support level of the poll and n is the number of voters polled.

And the 95% confidence interval is 1.96 * (standard error).

The maximum margin of error occurs when p = 50%.

(Maximum) margin of error (95%) = 1.96 × \sqrt{\frac{0.5(1-0.5)}{n}} = \frac{0.98}{\sqrt{n}}

Margin of error at 99% confidence \approx 1.29/\sqrt{n}\,

Margin of error at 95% confidence \approx 0.98/\sqrt{n}\,

Margin of error at 90% confidence \approx 0.82/\sqrt{n}\,

 

 

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proloyProloy Bhatta
M.S. Engineering; UCLA

david charles terrDavid Terr
Ph.D. Math; Berkeley
joseph hunterJoseph Hunter
High School Intern from Michigan

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State by State Primary Polls

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Nebraska (R)
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1
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